Philadelphia @ Toronto -5.5
Boston @ Milwaukee -7
We like the home teams to cover the Eastern Conference second round openers, and are betting on the Raptors and Bucks to both beat the number.
Supporting this notion, we note that momentum gained during the first round of the playoffs seems to carry forward. NBA teams heading into the second match-up of the post-season off a four-game playoff win streak have been great bets against the spread, delivering a 26% return in investment (ROI) since 2005.
Though the number of observations for this sysyem is rather small, the remarkable consistency of outcome gives us some comfort with its forecasts. This approach has registered a losing record in only two of the ten seasons for which we have data.
More scientifically, per SurveyMonkey's sample size calculator, based on the population of 3,307 post-season games completed since the NBA's 1972 inception, a sample size of 21 observations implies better than 80% confidence that this system truly features greater than 50% accuracy.
Separately, sharps too seem to be on the Raptors this afternoon. This is a good sign for our play, as the smart money has proven very prescient in the playoffs.
When the percent of dollars wagered against the spread on a particular team exceeds the percent of spread bets, sharps are assumed to be throwing support to the squad exhibiting this discrepancy.
BetLabsSports data on bet flows only extends back to 2016, but bigger, (presumably) more informed bettors have demonstrated an decided edge over this horizon, delivering a 10% ROI.
At present, 55% of ATS wagers tracked by The Action Network are down on the Toronto, but 57% of the dollars back the home team.
Milwaukee is supported by 55% of both spread bets both by number and dollar value.
Happy betting!