Arjan Bhullar vs. Juan Adams -145
The card for UFC Fight Night 151, which will be headlined by by a lightweight clash between "Raging" Al Iaqunita and Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone, features a total of 12 scheduled contests. However, it is the second match of the preliminaries that we think represents the most compelling value. We are betting heavyweight, Juan Adams (-145), in his second UFC appearance, can dispatch another relative newbie, Arjan Bhullar, who will be entering the cage for only his fourth UFC engagement.
At age 27, Adams is five years his competitor's junior. We have documented previously the advantage that youth generally confers in fight sports. Win rates greater than 50% have been observed in instances where a fighter is five years younger than his opposition.
Further, the man nicknamed "The Kraken" will lord a five inch reach advantage over Bhullar Saturday. We have also noted a linkage between this physical characteristic and higher historical win rates. Specifically, an examination of 1,178 MMA fights in Nevada between 2003 and 2010 observed win rates in the 70% ballpark for fighters with an edge in the reach department of at least 3.5 inches.
Natural advantages aside, Adams' uber-aggressive style resulted in him landing nine meaningful blows per minute in the debut inside the octagon last December. This compares quite favorably to Bhullar's two significant strikes landed per minute over the course of his three UFC fights. Adams absorbed, on average, three impactful strikes per minute in his dance with Chris de la Rocha, versus Bhullar's average of a little over two. Thus, Adams' nets about six to seven strikes landed per minute more than Bhullar.
This disparity is a huge! To provide context, consider that the best significant strikes landed versus strikes absorbed differential in the history of the UFC's heavyweight division (considering only experienced fighters) is Cain Velasquez's +4.1. Curtis Blaydes occupies the tenth spot with a figure of +1.7.
We illustrate below significant strikes landed per minute, significant strikes absorbed per minute, and the difference between the two for each fight on the UFC Fight Night 151 card (excluding bouts featuring fighters making a debut performance, as there is no data to evaluate in such instances).
Bottom line: In all the important categories we monitor, such as age, reach, and demonstrated fighting ability, Adams holds meaningful advantages over Bhullar. As such, we are laying the -145 and siding with the favorite to collect the win in Canada and continue his ascension.
Happy betting!!