Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets -4.5
Pepsi Center, Denver, Colorado
May 7, 2019, 7:30 PM PDT
We are taking the Nuggets to pull ahead in their Western Conference Semifinals showdown with the Trail Blazers tonight. Denver tied the series at two games apiece with a narrow win in Portland Sunday, and we expect the Mile High boys to roll on this evening, from the comfort of their own building.
We cite two compelling trends in favor of the home win and cover Tuesday. For one, under the on-court direction of Damian Lillard and the leadership of Coach Stotts from the sideline, Portland has struggled in the post-season coming off a straight up loss. Since 2012, the Blazers are 8-15 ATS from this position. We dissect this shoddy showing below, by season.
Against the grain of history, Portland is actually 2-0 ATS from this spot this season, with both wins coming on the road; in our estimation though, this blip does not override the bigger picture trend. Further we estimate Denver's probability of advancing as two to three times Portland's chance of making the Conference Finals, which is to say we see Denver winning two of the remaining three scheduled contests--tonight's home action represents a prime opportunity for the Nuggets to assume control of this series.
Additionally, we note that sharp bettors seem to be in the Nuggets camp for Tuesday's action. Denver has attracted the support of 55% of the ATS wagers tracked by The Action Network, suggesting that Joe Public is on Denver's bandwagon. However, 73% of dollars bet against the spread are also down on the Nuggets, hinting that sharps and squares are aligned on this one.
Sharp bettors are enjoying a torrid 36-20 ATS run (for a 25% return on investment) in this year's playoffs. As such, this trend is undeniably worth noting.
Happy betting!!