Denver Nuggets +3.5 @ Portland Trail Blazers
Sharp money seems to be aligned with the Nuggets' bid to close out Damian Lillard and the Blazers this evening. As of the time of this writing, 51% of ATS bets are behind Denver, but the boys from altitude have collected 57% of dollars wagered against the spread. Betting with this discrepancy has been profitable in aggregate since 2016 (when the data feed starts), and has covered at a 62% rate this postseason.
Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 1H
With that said, we do expect Portland to give it the ol' college try tonight. And we think Lillard's and McCollum's resolve is adequate to beat the first half number. We are betting accordingly.
This inclination finds validation from an examination of playoff teams off consecutive losses (to the same opponent). Since 2005, teams on two-game losing streaks within a series have covered the first half of their next game at a 62% rate, for an 18% return on investment (ROI). This system is 8-4 ATS so far this year.
Further, this trend has delivered a losing record in only one of the 14 completed seasons for which data is available.
And while the profitability of this approach has been demonstrated in contests featuring teams from both the Eastern and Western Conferences, the returns have been asymmetrical. Squads from the West in this position, like the Blazers, have amassed a 30% ROI over time, including a 5-1 ATS run this season.
(Eastern Conference teams in this position have been good for a more sober 7% ROI, and a 3-3 ATS run so far this year.)
Happy betting!!