Broadly speaking, we are looking for NFL underdogs' advantage to wane in week 4, consistent with typical cyclical patterns. Our primary football handicapping framework highlights several home favorites for consideration Sunday.
Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts -6.5
Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans -5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ LA Rams -9.5
Our power rankings framework makes the Colts to be more than a touchdown better than the Raiders at Lucas Oil Stadium, gives the Texans a better than six point edge versus a Cam-less Panthers team and estimates the Rams' advantage over the Bucs to be in the ballpark of 11. So there is value with the fav in each of these contests, as far as we can tell.
Additionally, the multiple, independent computer sim routines on our roster also unanimously endorse Houston and Los Amgeles to beat the chalk Sunday, bolstering our confidence in these plays.
Our sudden affinity for chalk layers might seem odd given our prior predilection for taking the points. But our approach attempts to adapt to shifting undercurrents in the martketplace from week to week, in an effort to generate consistent profits. Our charge is to boldly go where there profits are.
So, rather than fixating on a particular angle for the duration of the football year, we aim to exhibit adaptability as regimes change throughout the season, or to "Be water", to quote the iconic martial artist, Bruce Lee.
We are well aware of underdogs' historical edge against the spread early in the NFL season. This NY Post article, for instance, reports NFL teams that were expected to lose outright amassed a 54% win rate against the spread from week 1 through week 3 (back to 2003) -- the article sites BetLabsSports as its data source.
This report theorizes that good teams round into form only after a few weeks, aided by a growing sample of data on the current version of the competition to analyze and adjust to. The implication being that early in the year poorer teams have opportunties versus the number to capitalize on the slow starts by stronger franchises.
Using numbers from Pro Football Reference, we have observed that week 3 especially has been kind to bettors inclined to take the points.
Conversely though, underdogs have covered at a below average rate in week 4 since at least 2003. We think the behavior of casual bettors fuels this phenomenon. In weeks 2 and 3 fading the public tends to be profitable, while dogs generally cover at above average rates during weeks 1-3. Taken together, these observations imply bettors tend to load up on favorites early in the football year.
However, after suffering disappointment against the spread at the hands of darling teams for a couple of weeks or so, the fickle herd tends to switch sides and throw support behind the point takers that have been racking up covers. This bandwagon hopping creates value with the favorites and sets the stage for the start of the underdog/favorite normalization that is common at this point in the season.
To be clear, we are NOT proposing a 13-game parlay made up entirely of favorites Sunday. However, in deference to the reality that historical ATS splits have proven to be pretty even-Steven in week 4, we think balance is warranted heading into this week's action.
Happy betting!!