Our primary NFL handicapping framework offers what appears a healthy balance between favored teams and point takers expected to beat the number Sunday. We outlined our favorite favorites for the week here. Herein we detail several underdogs we expect to beat the number Sunday.
Washington Redskins +3 @ NY Giants
Jacksonville Jags +3 @ Denver Broncos
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints +3
First, our power rankings work gives the hosting Giants only about a 2-point edge over the Skins, hinting at about a point of value at a key spread level.
Case Keenum was not listed on the Skins' final injury report, per Rotoworld, and is expected to go. Keenum ranks 8th among qualified QBs so far this season by Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement stat (DYAR). The eight-year veteran also ranks eighth in passing yards and is tied for fourth in touchdowns thrown.
In comparison, Giants rookie QB, Daniel Jones, who will start for the second week, is only nominally better than the average replacement level player, by DYAR (although Jones is slightly better than Eli Manning by this score).
Further, our approach sees the Jags at the Broncos as essentially a toss-up, so here too we are delighted to get the crucial 3.
Again we note that the underdog has a notable advantage at the QB position. Jacksonville's Gardner Minshew currently ranks 15th by DYAR among qualified passers, versus 24th for the Broncos' Joe Flacco. This statistic implies a difference of 117 yards of production, on average, between these players.
Also, we note the likelihood for high winds throughout this contest. Strong air currents have been demonstrated to correspond with lower total scores. Relatedly, lower scores intuitively imply closer contests (i.e. fewer opportunites to create separation on the scoreboard). Thus, we regard forecast weather as a support for our play on the road dog in Denver Sunday.
And finally, our framework regards the Saints as live dogs when they host America's team this evening.
Through three weeks of action, the Cowboys have dominated their competition, winning by an average margin of close to 18 points, and covering with almost 9 points to spare, on average.
But let us not forget, these gaudy stats were amassed versus bottom tercile NFL teams...squads with one cumulative win between the three of them as we head into week 4.
We think bettors are overreacting to Dallas' recent string of big numbers, as well as to Drew Brees' absence for New Orleans (as was the case last week, when Teddy Bridgewater led the Saints to a straight up win as 5 point underdogs at the then-undefeated Seattle Seahawks).
Bottom line: History says ATS outcomes are less likely to uniformly favor teams taking points this week than has been the case recently. However, bettors should not summarily shun dogs in week 4 either. Rather, an optimal strategy probably is pretty balanced, backing chalk layers and point takers in equal measure. We present above a few dogs we think have the potential to cash in, when the dust ultimately settles.
Happy betting!!