New England Patriots -3
Our power rankings framework, which is our primary NFL handicapping tool, is equivocal on the ATS outcome for the week 9 edition of NFL Sunday Night Football. We see the Pats winning by anywhere from a couple of points to a couple of field goals. As such, we are not officially endorsing a side versus the number Sunday evening.
Unofficially though, we are compelled to roll the dice on New England. One observation making us feel comfortable playing for the Patriots cover is that 76% of spread bets are down on New England. (For the millionth time) consensus picks have proven prescient during what we call the 'belly' of the regular season (especially when the masses are lining up behind the road team).
Further, we note that the present spot appears a tough one for a rested Baltimore squad to pick up a cover. Historically, teams that beat the number in only the last game of the three before a BYE have not fared well in their return to action.
This set of circumstances crops up rarely, but has been a highly profitability condition.
Finally, we remind our audience that big spread moves in primetime NFL action tends be directionally inconsistent with actual ATS outcomes. In games played after 5PM (Pacific), bettors have been well-paid to fade line movement of at least two points.
Per Sports Insights, the CRIS line for Pats Ravens peaked at New England -5 last week, before Baltimore backers stepped in in force. The Action Network reports an even higher opening line of New England -6.5.
Happy betting!!