LA Chargers @ Oakland Raiders u48.5
Our power rankings framework sees the week 10 Thursday Night Football clash between the second and third ranked teams in the AFC West as too close to call versus the number. However, we did identify discernible value in the betting totals arena so, for the reasons enumerated below, we are siding with the UNDER this evening.
First, we note that the UNDER has exhibited a historical edge in Thursday evening NFL divisional action. Since 2003, the O/U is 50-41-2 (55%) from this position (including a 12-6 stint when the total closed at 48 or higher).
We hypothesize that reduced scoring in such instances owes to the involved teams' enhanced ability to adjust to each other's gameplan, which is born out of increased familiarity resulting from the NFL scheduling requirement that teams play each team in the their division twice per season, on average.
Casting aside particulars related to teams knowing what to expect from each other and idiosyncrasies related to outcomes decided during primetime play, we still find support for the UNDER tonight.
Per a profitable system from The Action Network, combined scores have tended to disappoint in the back half of the regular NFL season against above average betting totals that have risen at least a point from open to close. The UNDER has been good for a 12% ROI since 2003 from this position.
(Pinnacle, CRIS and 5Dimes opened this O/U at 47.5.)
Thus, while we are less convicted about who will cover tonight, a couple of big-picture historical trends leave us feeling pretty confident that bettors are overly exuberant regarding the total. Accordingly, we are happy to bet on an aggregate score of UNDER 48.5.
Happy betting!!