Los Angeles Rams +3.5
Our primary framework has the visiting Ravens as less than a field goal better than the Rams in week 12, which is to say we think the market is too high on Baltimore in the wake of their 41-7 undressing of a quality Houston team last week. Accordingly, we are happy to receive better than three points with the underdog (Bovada is offering Rams +3.5 -115 at present).
Validating the indication from our power rankings work, in the past, teams with at least 75% SU win rates have been ripe for ATS letdowns on the road after victories in their own building by at least three TDs.
Additionally, we've noted previously that average three-game margins of victory of three TDs or better tend to mark the pinnacle of ATS performance for a time.
Separately, as of the time of this writing, 74% of ATS wagers and 66% of dollars bet against the spread (tracked by The Action Network) are backing the road team. This lopsided take has pressured the spread up from Ravens -1 (CRIS) a week ago to the -3.5 level. This extreme herding around Baltimore likely indicates overexuberance.
In primetime NFL games where the line moves at least two full points, it has been solidly profitable historically to fade the line movement.
This contrarian system has delivered a 58% cover rate since 2003.
Bottom line: Baltimore is riding a four-game cover streak featuring wins most recently over the the Patriots by 17, the Bengals by 36 and Texans by 34. These numbers, against quality teams more times than not, have compelled the public to get behind the Ravens, but history says fade the darling team here rather than jump on the bandwagon.
Happy betting!!