Chicago Bears -3 1H
Our primary, power rankings framework makes the Bears at Soldier Field to be 9-11 points better than the visiting Giants in week 12, implying ample value with the home team relative to the current line of -6. However, we observe a compelling history-based support for the road team that gives us pause regarding the Bears' ability to cover the full game chalk. We reconcile this cautious indication on the whole game number by betting on the home team to beat the first half chalk.
In the face of our power rankings signal, history might be interpreted to favor a Giants' cover Sunday. One historical data-based system predicated on highlighting road dogs that are undervalued as a result of lingering perceptions rooted in last year's performance says take with the road team to beat the number.
In Sunday or Monday games with a total no greater than 50, road dogs of less than a touchdown that won six or fewer games last year have delivered a 15% return on investment since 2003, on a 59% cover rate.
This approach is an impressive 17-6-1 (74%) ATS this season-to-date, implying bettors might be wise to heed this signal.
Alternatively, we feel better about backing the Bears to beat the first half number, as, through the first two periods of action, the public has historically been inclined to undervalue home teams versus competition unlikely to be particularly familiar with their tendencies after bad offensive stretches.
Teams matching up with non-division competition in their building, after mustering no more than three TDs in each of their prior three outs have been great 1H bets, generating a 15% return on investment since 2003.
This system is 12-4 ATS on the year.
Happy betting!!