We are backing the the Mavs +6 to cover at the Lakers in Christmas Day NBA action. The computer simulation routines at our disposal slate the Los Angeles as no more than five points better then Dallas Thursday, so perceived value forms the first basis for this pick.

Additionally, history says bettors willing to fade the Lakers' opening day loss to the Clips are likely to be compensated. Specifically, in early season matchups featuring non-division teams that both made the prior playoffs, fading home squads off a loss has been good for a long term return on investment of 25%.

In addition to favoring Dallas at the Los Angeles Lakers, this history-based system also triggered for the Clippers at the Nuggets. We are passing on this latter contest though as our computers forecast a Nuggets win.

Happy betting!!