Fading Blazers off embarrassing home loss: Hawks +4.5

A couple of consistently profitable history-based systems call for the Hawks to rebound from the thumping doled out by the Utah Jazz yesterday. Now Atlanta travels northwest from Salt Lake City to Portland to face the Blazers. We are backing the road cover.

But the Blazers are also coming off a big loss. The Pacers came to Moda Center two days ago and handed Portland a 24-point loss in a contest that got out of hand in the second quarter, and pretty much stayed that way.

Historically, road teams tend to beat the number facing opponents off substantial home losses, perhaps as causal bettors overestinate home teams' capacity to recover versus the number.

Back to 2004, this system has amassed a 13% return on investment, has lost more games than it won in only three seasons and is 5-2 ATS so far this year.

Separately, we note that the present appears a solid spot to bet on the team playing on no rest.

Backing road dogs facing non-conference opposition after playing a night earlier has also proven a profitable long term strategy early in the NBA season.

We hypothesize that causal bettors, perhaps new casual bettors, herd toward home favorites in this situation, assuming that the tandem of travel and no rest will adversely impact the opposing team's performance. By about 15% of the way through the year, these bettors might come to recognize the flaw in their thinking.

This system has suffered only three years with a cover rate below 50% since 2005, has been good for a 15% long-term return and is 5-2 ATS this season.

Happy betting!!