Betting Boston Avenges Surprise Loss: Celtics -1 -110

Our computers forecast a Celtics cover Tuesday, in a re-do of an NBA matchup from two days prior. As three-point underdogs this past Sunday, Indiana gained control of the action in the third quarter and managed to fend off a late comeback effort from Boston. The Pacers secured the win, albeit by the narrowest possible margin.

This situation sets the stage for the Boston bounce-back tomorrow, we expect. Our hypothesis is that stealing a game a team is not expected to win requires a greater than average level of fortitude. We contend that such performances, in fact, borrow from the next night's effort, leaving teams physically and mentally spent for their next out.

Consistent with this thinking, we observe that fading home teams off wins by no more than a bucket actually has delivered a long term return of 17% in non-division play featuring teams that both made last year's playoffs.

We expect the combination of constructive indications from our simulation work and the supportive environment will bode well for Boston Tuesday. We are betting on the Celtics cover.

Personnel note: The Pacers' star guard, Victor Oladipo, missed Sunday's action (rest), but is expected to be active Tuesday. Perhaps relatedly, the spread has been on the move, surging from as low as Celtics -2 to the present +1.5. Consistent with the spread movement on display, The Action Network has observed sharp money on the Pacers.

Happy betting!!