NBA picks (Jan 8): 25-23 ATS (52%), 0% ROI

Betting on impaired offense, both ways, without Giannis and Collin Sexton: u218.5

Giannis Antetokuompo finished last season rated the most valuable player in the NBA by ESPN's RPM statistic. Per RPM, the Greek Freak's presence adds seven points of offensive output per 100 possessions, and his defense saves about three points. But the Bucks' elder Antetokuompo brother has been ruled out of Saturday's action. We expect about four points less of aggregate scoring related to Milwaukee's personnel issues (assuming the player(s) that assume(s) Giannis' minutes perform(s) at the team average level).

Similarly, the Cavs' Collin Sexton will also miss Saturday's action. This third-year man or of Alabama's roughly 25 points per game will certainly be missed by the NBA's second least efficient offense.

We like the UNDER for this contest, as we do not think the two-point change in the betting total from open to current adequately adjusts for the diminution of offensive fire power likely on display this evening.

Consistent with our thinking, we observe ample contextual support for the UNDER from this position.

First, when OVER-prone home teams face away teams with a penchant for going UNDER, the UNDER has indeed proven the play.

Betting on lower scores from this spot has delivered a 25% long-term ROI, with only four losing seasons since 2005. This system is 9-3 this year.

Further, in divisional play where the significant majority of money is wagered on the OVER, backing the UNDER has also proven quite profitable.

This latter system has generated a 9% ROI since 2016, including a 7-5 run this season, and has suffered only one losing year during this span.

Happy betting!!