Betting the Wolves ATS for the first half, but also like Minnesota to cover the whole game chalk: Minnesota 1H -0.5

Minnesota dropped their last game Wednesday as 2.5 point home favorites versus this same Memphis squad. Two days later, the Timberwolves are again laying modest chalk in a rematch at Target Center.

Friday's action will mark the fourth consecutive and final game of a home stand for Minnesota Wolves.

Prior to collecting the upset victory two days ago, the Grizzlies had already rattled off back-to-back wins and covers.

Taken together, these factors coalesce to support our expectation for the first half home cover today, as teams off upset losses in the midst of extended home stands have consistently beaten the first half spread facing teams that made the playoffs last year.

We suppose the success of this system owes to a tendency of the betting public to get too down on home teams following upset losses. When such teams match up with quality teams next (as indicated by a berth in the last playoffs), it might be that much easier for causal bettors to write off teams in this spot.

However, since 2005, backing teams on extended home stints to cover the first half number after upset losses and versus playoff caliber opponents has been good for a 22% long-term return on investment. This system has suffered only three losing years over this horizon, and is 2-0 so far this season.

The same set of criteria, applied to the whole game spread, has likewise demonstrated reasonably consistent, double-digit long-term returns. The whole game version is also 2-0 on the year. However, the higher and slightly more stable returns to the first half system steer us toward betting on the first 24 minutes of action. But to bettors adverse to intra-game wagers, we are totally comfortable with Timberwolves -1.5.

Happy betting!!