NBA picks (Jan 10): 29-26 ATS (53%), 1% ROI

Backing the Sixers to cover at the Hawks: Philly +6.5

Our prediction framework calls for the Sixers cover at the Hawks Monday. Validating the signal from our computers, the FiveThirtyEight model sees Philly as live dogs at Atlanta. A profitable history-based system on our radar likewise highlights the 76ers and the points this afternoon. Accordingly, we are backing the road win versus the number.

Our own computer simulation models give Atlanta less than a one bucket edge, implying ample value with the road team at current spread levels. More emphatically, Nate Silver's outfit, FiveThirtyEight, calls for Philly to pull off the upset. While this expectation is not much more aggressive than our thinking, and the +195 Philadelphia moneyline is admittedly pretty sexy, we are content to take the better than two longballs cushion and play for the ATS win at the standard vigorish.

Also, we have observed (several times by now) that a momentum effect is evident early in the NBA season. Meaningful home favorites off one or more consecutive ATS losses tend to not cover in early-season, non-conference action. Perhaps naïve bettors herd toward darling teams, overvaluing home favorites from this position.

But whatever the reason, this system is 17-7 ATS this season, and has been good for a 10% long-term return.

Bottom line: The Hawks laying better that two threes at State Farm Arena, after dropping their last four-game SU/ATS, looks to be a tough spot the home cover. We're backing the Sixers plus the points.

Happy betting!!