Milwaukee Bucks -7 1H -110 @ New York Knicks

As 8-point home dogs, the Knicks were blown out by 20 by the Sixers Saturday. This is after losing by 15 at the Pacers in their season opener Wednesday. New York is off to a tough start.

We do not anticipate the Knicks will get a reprieve from the straight up and against-the-spread poundings they have absorbed so far when the Milwaukee Bucks hit Broadway Sunday.

Historically, teams off 20-25 home losses have proven solid fades when hosting their next contest. Back to 2005, betting against teams in this position has produced losses in only three seasons, and has been good for about a 13% return on investment. This system is 2-0 this season.

This strategy is only 2-4-1 though when the home team off a big home loss is playing in no rest.

As an alternative to laying the 12.5 with the Bucks for the whole game, we suggest Milwaukee -7 1H. The first half version of the aforementioned system is also 2-0 this season, and has been good for a 6% long term return.

Backward looking returns improve substantially though for the 1H version when we zoom in on home teams off the big home losses facing conference opposition. This cohort delivered a 17% ROI since 2005.

Importantly, this variation is 3-0 historically the home team is playing the second of a back-to-back.

Happy betting!!