Expect Westbrook and the Wiz to stay close: Washington +8.5 -110

FiveThirtyEight's NBA forecasting framework makes the Nets 7-7.5 points better then the Wizards Sunday, suggesting value with the road dogs, given the current line of -8.5.

Consistent with this prediction, we note that home favorites of more than a bucket have been great early-season fades, when playing outside their division after one or more non-covers.

This system has delivered a 9% long term return on investment back to 2005, with a mere five losing seasons of the last 15 years.

Of note, Brooklyn is receiving 81% of the ATS volume and 98% of the spread dollars down on this game, as of the time of this writing. The one-way nature of flows could pressure the line wider by tipoff.

Happy betting!!