Market Underestimating Scoring Potential: Backing o208.5 -105

Our computer simulation work favors the OVER in game two of the Eastern Conference Finals. We are betting accordingly.

Through the first two series of the 2020 NBA Playoffs, the Celtics allowed an average of about 102 points per 100 possessions. In game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Heat squeezed Boston for close to 113. This lapse in defensive efficiency may not be a fluke, as, over the regular season, the Heat averaged 113 points per 100 possessions (about two points better than the League average). And Miami has dialed up their offense in the post-season, averaging 115 points per 100 possessions to date.

The Celtics had yet to face an offense like Miami's.Toronto's offensive efficiency was about average, by points per 100 possessions, while the Sixers' were a point better than average in the regular season.

Similarly, in these post-season proceedings, the Heat had not encountered an offense like Boston's, prior to game 1. The Celtics boast the fourth most efficient offense in the League the last year. On the other hand, Indiana was, at best, average with the ball, and while the Buck's offense was THE best in the pre-bubble NBA this year, by the time Milwaukee saw Miami, Giannis was already showing cracks. His impairment would dramatically modify Milwaukee's scheme, forcing a decline in looks at the basket and three-pointers, in favor of an increased reliance on mid-range jumpers--the nastiest shot in basketball, from an analytics perspective.

Bottom line: The Heat and Celtics both represent top-ten NBA defenses, each allowing at least four points fewer per 100 possessions in the playoffs than the post-season average. However, both teams also feature elite offenses, something neither has faced in this post-season prior to game 1. We are betting that both bookmakers and opposing defenses need to adjust to the depth of the offenses on display before the UNDER starts to look attractive. Backing the OVER today.

(We got 208.5 -105, but are comfortable playing this line up to the current 209.5. At present 65% of tickets and 82% of dollars wagered on the O/U are supporting the OVER, so the line might move higher still.)

Happy betting!!