Getting down on the home dogs: Arizona Cardinals +3 -125

Our power rankings framework perceives modest value with the Cardinals plus the field goal versus the Los Angeles Rams in week 13 NFL play on a neutral field (no fans will attend the action at State Farm Stadium, so a neutral field is about right). Separately, we also observe historical context that favors the Arizona cover. Accordingly, we are comfortable taking the three points (which we paid up for, given historical significance of this level) and backing the home team to beat the number.

In addition to the supportive signal emitted by our primary NFL handicapping framework, we note that betting against sharps that might be throwing their weight behind the Rams probably makes sense today.

Sports Insights defines steam moves as sudden, drastic and uniform line movements across the entire sports betting marketplace. While intuition might suggest steam moves indicate the direction of sharp action, and that it should be profitable to tail better capitalized bettors, historically, it has paid to fade such indications (at least in select spots):

Betting against favorites that see one or more steam moves (when the underdogs' line has not experienced any steam) has been good for an 18% long-term return on investment, and is 10-5 ATS so far this season.

Happy betting!!