Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Football Team +7.5 -115

Our primary framework makes the Cardinals about 4 points better than Washington on a neutral field for week 2. As such, we see substantial value with the road dogs Sunday afternoon.

Supporting this signal, we note that the position of favorite has proven a tough spot for Arizona to earn a cover. Over the last five completed seasons, the Cardinals have laid chalk 36 times (or in about 44% of games played). Giving up points to back the Cards proved to be a losing proposition in aggregate.

But this observation is not necessarily unique to Arizona. In general, in games between teams that failed to make playoff appearances last season, fading teams laying at least a touchdown after surprise SU wins has been remarkably profitable.

In-line with the overarching theme for this week's picks, we think the opportunity in such situations arises as a result of the public's penchant for overweighting last weeks' outcome.

It is not lost on us that Washington's 10 point win over the Eagles, as +5.5 point underdogs, looks rather similar to the Cardinals overtaking the Niners in week 1. History draws a hard distinction between these scenarios though. In the limited sample (since 2005) of undefeated teams meeting in divisional action, the underdog's edge versus the spread has been clear.

Thus, we are comfortable taking the points and betting on the Washington cover Sunday.

Happy betting!