Jacksonville Jaguars +6 -120 @ Houston Texans

We grade the Texans as no better than five points better than the Jaguars Sunday, after accounting for the roughly 30% capacity expected at NRG Stadium for the occasion. Accordingly, we are getting down on the Jags plus the six.

Inline with the prediction from our main system, we have observed a historical tendency that aligns with backing a Jags cover from the present position.

Since 2003, winless favorites have been profitable fades, delivering inclined bettors a 6% return on investment.

This system is 7-4 ATS so far this season.

When winless team lay points to opposition with no better than a 25% win rate, the system is a more impressive 64-39-4 (62%), for a 20% ROI (5-3 ATS so far this year).

Separately, courtesy of the pros at The Action Network, also supporting the road cover Sunday, we note that away teams experiencing rising expectations after recent disappointment have been solidly profitable bets.

Teams on two or three game road trips that see the spread move their way versus a Conference foe after a loss have been VERY profitable, delivering a 23% return on investment since 2003.

(The spread for Jags Texans opened at Houston -6.5, but has dropped to a consensus -5.5 as of the time of this writing.)

This system is 1-0 ATS so far this year.

Happy betting!!