Betting Seattle Seahawks -3 -140

Our primary framework makes the Seahawks to be five points better than the Cardinals in week 7, on a neutral field of play. However, Arizona will host a smattering of fans when Seattle comes to visit Sunday, warranting our standard, covid-era one point for home field advantage to the Cards. After this adjustment though, we still expect see the Seahawks as likely to cover the three-and-a-half.

We paid up for the hook, given the historical importance of a three-point margin in the NFL, but more risk conscious bettors might default to the listed line. We expect Seattle to cover up to -4.

Inline with our forecast, we note a couple of historical setups that support the case for the road favorites in Arizona Sunday.

First, betting against previously bad teams on hot streaks versus the number has been a winning long-term strategy earlier in the season.

During the first half of the NFL season, fading teams on two to four game cover streaks after no more than six SU wins last year has been good for a 17% return on investment since 2004.

This system is 8-3 so far this season. The positive long and short term performance of this system might reflect the betting public's recency bias, which likely results in the overvaluing of teams after unsustainable bettor-friendly stretches.

Separately, Seattle enjoyed some time off last week. The additional rest also supplants our view that the Seahawks can muster the cover Sunday.

Teams laying points after not seeing action in at least two weeks have proven solid bets.

Perhaps players' bodies recuperate more fully over the extended period, and coaches develop more detailed gameplans for the next opponent.

Teams playing after extended downtime are 2-0 versus the number so far this season.

Happy betting!!