Live Dog Alert: Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos +3.5 -110

Our primary NFL handicapping framework grades the week 8 matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers at the Denver Broncos a PICK on a neutral site. But Denver will host 5,700 fans for the affair, warranting a modest adjustment for home field. After baking in a slight edge to account for the hosts' advantage, we are giving the horses a modestly higher probability of collecting the straight up win Sunday. Accordingly, we are happy to back Denver plus a number north of the critical three threshold.

We are content to play Denver versus the number, given the hefty margin implied by our taking a spread greater than a field goal. The more aggressive approach though, of betting the Broncos moneyline (currently on offer at Bovada at +165) also fits squarely with indications from our power rankings work.

Supporting our ATS pick, we note that while teams taking points at home have proven a losing proposition over the long-term (48% cover rate since 2003; -6% return on investment), this subset is a blistering 9-1 ATS this year (including a cover by these Broncos versus the Superbowl Champion Chiefs last week)!

Separately, the Chargers won a mere five games last season, but have rattled off three consecutive ATS wins over the last three weeks. History says do not trust formerly bad teams on hot streaks versus the number (see here for a discussion of recency bias, A.K.A. the availability heuristic, which we think probably drives bettors to erroneously overweight more recent outcomes).

During the first half of the season, fading two to four game cover streaks by teams that won six or fewer games SU last season has been good for a 16% return on investment since 2004.

This rules-based approach is 8-5 ATS so far this year.

Further, after seven weeks of NFL action, the Chargers and Broncos are tied for 3rd place in the AFC West, each sporting a 2-4 SU record. The same recency bias referenced earlier likely also translates to the public throwing support behind favorites in this spot. However, we have observed that when teams with low win rates collide, value is often evident with the team taking the points.

Backing underdogs in meetings between NFL teams that average no more than one win out of every three games played has delivered a 7% return on investment since 2004, including a 10-8 ATS run (for a 56% cover rate) so far this year.

Happy betting!!