Deiveson Figueiredo -220 vs. Joseph Benavidez +200
Deiveson Figueiredo boasts edges in most of the categories that have demonstrated predictive ability regarding fight outcomes: a 3" reach advantage, edges in power and size and a three year age advantage (over his longer tenure, Joseph Benavidez has suffered through 15 more pro fights than has Figueiredo).
Benavidez's last three wins came against Jussier Formiga, a 35 year old that dropped his last three, Dustin Ortiz, who finished his last ten fights with a 5-5 mark and Alex Perez, who looks like an up-and-comer on paper, but has not faced any serious opposition. THis is to say that we discount Benavidez's win streak heading up to the first showdown with Figueiredo this past February.
Not to mention that in the UFC, fighters tend to prevail in rematches after winning the first meeting. Last summer, Iain MacMillan, writing for OddsShark, observed that since UFC 1, winners of the first match emerged victorious after most rematches (71-44-3, 62%).
While we like Figueiredo for the victory, -230 odds are too rich for our blood. Instead we're playing the 'Figueiredo inside the distance' prop for -150. Supporting this pick, in the aforementioned study for OddsShark, MacMillan also found that the most common ending in UFC rematches is KO/TKO/submission (57%).
Happy betting!!