Betting Phoenix bangs final nail in Denver's coffin Sunday: Suns -3

The Nuggets will try to muster a last stand at Ball Arena Sunday. Denver is down 0-3 to the up-and-coming Phoenix Suns in the NBA Playoffs Western Conference Semifinals. These teams will square off for game 4 action Sunday afternoon.

One way the Nuggets have tried to compensate for Jamal Murray's absence in this series is by becoming more active from beyond the arc. Denver has taken 39% of their shots from deep in the post-season, which ranks in the top quartile of playoff hopefuls and contenders by this measure, compared to less than 36% of attempts during the regular season (good for 17th in the League).

This strategy could have potentially been effective versus the Blazers, whose defense against the longball leaves much to be desired (Portland ranks in the NBA's bottom quartile guarding the three), but has not been effective facing a Suns team that is particularly stingy from range.

The Nuggets offense has produced beneath the post-season norm in each of the first three games of this series, delivering 107.4, 100 and 112.9 points per 100 possessions (the average is 114.9 so far). We regard this observation as a testament to the Suns defense, and we do not expect a sudden Denver makeover for game 4. Accordingly, we are betting Phoenix puts the Nuggets out of their misery Sunday.

Consistent with our fundamental read, we note that, in general, skidding dogs have proven great post-season fades historically.

In the playoffs, betting against underdogs on at least three game losing streaks has delivered a 14% return on investment back to 2004-05...

Further, when the dog on the ropes made a playoff appearance last year, this simple system is an even more impressive 46-27 ATS (63%), for a 22% ROI.

Happy betting!!