Two touchdowns is a lot of chalk: Paying up for Falcons +14 -140
The inaugural contest of the 2021 NFL season turned out to be a shootout between Dak Prescott and Tom Brady. Dak piloted America's Team to a 29-28 lead with a mere 1:24 left to play, before the seemingly ageless TB12 marched the Bucanneers downfield and into position for a winning field goal, with a single tick left on the game clock.
In stark contrast to the treat football fans received Thursday, as 3.5 point favorites last Sunday, the Falcons looked utterly feckless, on both sides of the ball, en route to a 6-32 embarrassment at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles.
For week 2, the Bucs will host the fellow NFC South Atlanta Falcons. On the strength of the indication of meaningful value from our power rankings composite, corroborated by an assortment of environmental supports, we are betting that the Falcons can shake off the rout last week and secure the cover at Tampa Bay.
Our composite power rankings framework makes the Bucs about between a touchdown and nine points better than the Falcons this week, at a neutral location. Tampa Bay's long-term home versus away margins imply home field is worth about a point. This adjustment suggests about a field goal's worth of value with the Falcons, at a minimum.
In addition to this indication of fundamental value with the road team though, we note that early in the season, underdogs have historically delivered handsome returns versus the most familiar opposition.
Through approximately the first quarter of the regular NFL season, taking the points in division games has been good for a 16% long-term return on investment...
We believe the success of this history-based angle owes to the betting public's ATS bias toward better teams. Consistent with this hypothesis, Newell & Cortis (2021) indeed validate a previously identified disposition toward favorites in sports betting markets with two outcomes (as is generally the case in spread betting).
Given the familiarity division rivals enjoy (owing to the increased exposure that results from more frequent meetings), we believe such teams are better equipped to counter each other's abilities -- particularly early in the football year, when the best teams have likely yet to hit their peak stride. The result is tighter average margins, which translates to an edge for underdogs.
It has likewise proven solidly profitable in the past to bet against favorites facing familiar competition, following narrow wins.
Fading teams laying chalk in their division after wins by less then a field goal has delivered a 23% historical return...
We suspect the public's disposition toward favorites to cover the spread here too justifies this approach's profitability. In the case of teams off narrow wins, we think the mental and physical stamina required to edge by gamey opponent is not easily recuperated. Teams often come out flat in their following out, as a result.
Alternately, driven by a recency bias (more on this below), the betting public might bid spreads up for teams in the immediate wake of thrilling (close) wins.
Whatever the reason, profits to this system have proven statistically significant, and have accrued consistently (this angle has submitted cover rate below 50% in only for years since 2003), warranting attention.
Finally, also favoring Atlanta, we observe that dogs facing their Conference after the biggest home losses have proven very profitable ATS wagers.
In intra-conference NFL action, backing teams taking points after losses by 20 or more has returned 16% over the long-term...
Durand, Patterson & Shank (2021) examined the outcomes of NFL games played between 2003 and 2017 and validated the previously identified propensity among bettors to back teams off recent success. Further, Krieger, Davis & Strode (2021) evaluated NFL games played between 2007 and 2019 and concluded that, "bettor decision-making is erroneously influenced by recent performance of teams."
This recency bias, in our thinking, rationalizes the betting market's general inclination to shun prior big losers and herd around recent winners. We expect this skew leads bookies to shade lines in such instances, creating opportunity with underdogs.
Happy betting!!
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