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2022 NFL Season Betting Picks Performance

Writer's picture: @WizeOwlSports@WizeOwlSports
Aug 5, 202214 min read

Updated: Jul 26, 2023

Regular Season Record: 97-62-2 (60%), 12% ROI

Playoff Record (As of Jan 22): 5-4 (56%), 4% ROI


“If there weren’t luck involved, I would win every time.”

- Phil Hellmuth, Professional Poker Player


Divisional Round: 0-1 (0%), -100% ROI


Pooches were unable to build on their success in the Wild Card Round. Teams taking points finished 2-2 ATS in the second round of post-season action. Despite a viable, empirically-supported rationale, our sole pick, which featured an underdog, missed.



Wild Card Round: 5-3 (63%), 17% ROI


Underdogs finished 4-2 versus the number in the Wild Card Round of the 2022-23 NFL post-season. Despite this dominance for point-takers, our ATS plays on favorites covered at a 50% clip (1-1). We also cashed two tickets backing pooches this weekend. A singular moneyline play on a favorite also collected (favorites were 4-2 SU). Our O/U picks though represent a case of "right place, wrong time". Despite a strong historical bias toward the UNDER in initial post-season action, the OVER rattled off wins in each of the first five games, before ceding a bit of ground to the UNDER Monday evening. We had three UNDER picks, only one of which beat the number.



When the dust settled, we amassed a better than 60% hit rate and notched our sixth straight week of profit betting the NFL.


Happy betting!!

 

Week 18: 7-2 (78%), 44% ROI


Underdogs went 9-6 ATS in week 18 (before Sunday Night Football action). As such, it should not surprise that out dog-heavy slate of betting picks fared well in the last week of the regular NFL season.



Digging a bit deeper, it was road dogs that did the heavy lifting, accounting for more than all of the profitability point-takers delivered so far in week 18. Traveling underdogs were 8-4 ATS, while unfavored teams were 1-2 versus the number in their own buildings. Impressively, our line-up of road pooches were 5-2 (71%) versus the line, better than the aggregate cover rate for road dogs. Improbably, our sole home dog pick likewise cashed in, as did our one UNDER play.

 

Week 17: 4-3 (57%), 7% ROI


Point-takers eked out slight profitability last week, on an 8-7 ATS record. Despite the gain in week 17 though, the edge underdogs exhibited early in the year seems to have dissipated more recently. Through week 10, point takers amassed a 85-62-3 (58%) ATS record, however, since week 11 dogs are 53-50-2 (51%) versus the number.


Despite favorites experiencing almost as much success as underdogs in week 17, our chalk laying picks finished a disappointing 1-2. However, our prowess identifying worthy dogs was evident yet again, as we were 3-1 taking points. Thus, we notched our fourth consecutive week of profitability in week 17, and look forward to finishing the regular season with a bang next week.



Happy betting!!

 

Week 16: 7-2 (78%), 47% ROI


As unlikely as it was, after an utterly exceptional performance a week earlier, our framework was extremely profitable again in week 16. Our approach highlighted seven dogs and two O/U plays this week. Despite an 8-7 ATS showing for underdogs broadly (before Monday Night Football), our plays on point-takers finished 6-1 versus the number (we split our two totals bets).



We regard this ability to consistently identify worthy dogs, particularly in environments that are not necessarily friendly to the unfavored, as a testament to the robustness of our methodology.


Happy betting!!

 

Week 15: 10-3-1 (77%), 41% ROI


Through Sunday, underdogs were a dominant 9-5-1 ATS (64%) in week 15, delivering the third best return of the season, behind that of weeks 2 and 3 (periods where point-takers have historically exhibited strength). Away dogs were an especially profitable 6-3 versus the number. We backed six of nine teams taking chalk on the road (including the Lions). This cohort finished 5-1-1 (83%)...much better than the aggregate cover rate for week 15 road dogs. Our 3-1 (75%) ATS showing siding with teams taking points in their own building is likewise better than the 60% cover rate for home dogs. We also backed three UNDERs Sunday, of which two collected.



This, we could do little wrong this week. Accordingly, week 15 has overtaken week 7 as our most profitable of the season (as measured by units won). We look forward to a strong finish to the regular season, given 1) our general inclination to take rather than give up the points, and 2) as week 16 has demonstrated a long-term historical bias in favor of underdogs.


Happy betting!!

 

Week 14: 4-3 (57%), 9% ROI


Historically, week 14 is tough for underdogs. In fact, at 113-152-5 ATS between 2005-06 and 2021-22, point-takers have cost bettors more money in week 14 than in any other period of the regular season. In the face of history though, underdogs were 8-5 versus the number in week 4 of this season. Fortunately, our work flagged three home dogs--and all three covered. On the other hand, we had three favorites too. Only one beat the number. We were also disappointed by a play on an OVER.


So while we did turn a profit in week 14, our success came from an unlikely source. But, as Lefty Gomez, a 1930s-era pitcher for the New York Yankees, once quipped, "I'd rather be lucky than good."...honestly though, we'd prefer some combination of the two.


Happy betting!!

 

Week 13: [CORRECTION: 3-4 (43%), -18%]


After amassing a 100-76-4 (57%) ATS record through the first 12 weeks of the 2022-23 regular season, underdogs delivered a 5-10 showing versus the number this week--easily the worst period of the season for point takers. Our framework identified [CORRECTION: two of the five dogs] worth the flyer. However, we also supported [CORRECTION: three] that, in the end, did not justify the investment. We were also down on an UNDER that didn't beat the number. As such, we finished week 13 with a [CORRECTION: moderate] loss...not [CORRECTION: too] bad considering we were on the wrong side of the overarching trend for the period.


[CORRECTION: Chargers @ Raiders +2 💰]


After dodging this bullet, we are looking forward to the potential to actually earn some money next week.


Happy betting!!

 

Week 12: 3-3 (50%), -6% ROI


Coming into week 12, underdogs were 21-14 versus the number in primetime action (i.e. in nationally televised games played on Thursdays, Mondays and Sunday evenings). Yet we bet two Turkey Day favorites our framework highlighted. We are not thankful for either. Later in the week though we sided with three dogs; two cashed in. A successful O/U play also helped to moderate our losses out the gate.



Underdogs went 9-7 ATS (56%) in week 12, so our 2-1 record represents an 11% improvement versus the performance of point takers in general--BTW, pooches are 100-76-4 versus the number on the season. However, our 0-2 showing laying chalk is especially disappointing given that favorites covered 44% of the time. Separately, UNDERs are a dominant 102-78 on the season, but finished 8-8 in week 12, so our ability to pluck out an OVER is not really remarkable, but we'll take the win. So while our aggregate week 12 showing was not great, it does represent an improvement over recent performance (we were 9-11-1 versus the number between weeks 8 and 11)...onward and upward!


Happy betting!!

 

Week 11: 0-1 (0%), -100% ROI


Our travel schedule prevented us from publishing our Sunday picks. Apologies.



Happy betting!!

 

Week 10: 5-4 (55%), 5% ROI


After a couple of losing weeks, it certainly feels good to be back in the black! During a period where underdogs finished 8-6 versus the number, our point taking picks finished with a stellar 4-1 ATS record. Not surprisingly in a week where dogs covered at a 57% clip, our plays on favorites hurt performance (1-2 ATS), as did our solitary stab at an UNDER. Still, our success at our core proficiency, identifying value with dogs, proved to be the overarching theme in week 10.


 

Week 9: 1-2 (33%),-38% ROI


Back to back losing weeks! Yikes! Underdogs posted a standout 7-4-2 record in week 9, so our 1-1 showing taking points is disheartening. The UNDER registered a 9-4 tally. In an environment where lower than expected scores were dominant, it is no surprise that our bet on higher scores missed.



Fortunately, the loss we sustained in week 9 was not too substantial...and Thursday is a new day (week)!


Happy betting!!

 

Week 8: 3-4-1 (20%), -15% ROI


Perhaps a bit of give-back should not come as a huge surprise after our run in week 7. We were 1-2 backing favorites for the cover in week 8--especially disappointing, given that chalk layers were 7-8 ATS on the week. Our underdog picks were 1-2-1 versus the number, likewise dissatisfying considering underdog's edge.


Oct 30 Dolphins @ Lions +4 PUSH

Oct 31 Bengals -3 @ Browns 💸


We look forward to better results in weeks to come.


Happy betting!!

 

Week 7: 7-1 (88%), 63% ROI


Indeed, our struggles in week 6 set the stage for a near perfect run last week! This phenomenal showing easily overtakes week 1 as our best week of the season.


Our week 7 profitability \ is rather difficult to attribute, as there were no trends last week regarding home vs. away teams or favorites vs. underdogs—all beat the number at a 50% clip. Almost exactly in-line with the even-Steven distribution of covers last week, our eight picks featured ATS plays on three favorites and four dogs (and one OVER).



Our only setback was the Lions' loss at the Boys. Detroit looked good for the cover for three-and-a-half quarters, before giving up two TDs in the back half of the fourth.


Looking ahead, we note that, like last week, dogs boast virtually no edge heading into the next round of proceedings (since 2003-04, underdogs have registered 50% cover rates in 471 games played in regular season weeks 7 and 8). Let's hope our framework continues to adhere to the market's contours and put us in the best position to collect...or at least dances between the rain drops should our approach continue to highlight underdogs.


Happy betting!!

 

Week 6: 3-6 (33%), -37% ROI


The gambling gods humbled us last week, dishing out our first losing week of the season -- and it was indeed a doozy of a loser.



There were no overarching trends we can point to as justification for our poor showing (for instance, favorites/dogs and home/road teams all covered at 50% clips). As such, we chalk up this recent experience to variance, and look forward to week 7 (and putting this terrible experience behind us).


Happy betting!!

 

Week 5: 7-6 (54%), 1% ROI


Underdogs were dominant in week 5, covering ten of 16 games on the docket and improving to 48-31 ATS (61%) on the season. In particular, teams taking points on the road paid the bills most recently, as home dogs, were 2-3 last week, while road dogs notched a 7-3 ATS record in week 5 (the point taker in the international game likewise beat the number).


11 of our thirteen bets were down on dogs, so one would expect we had a pretty good week. However, improbable as it was, we suffered the misfortune of backing each of the three losing road dogs. We were also overweight home dogs, who, in aggregate, lost money in week 5. We managed to dance between the rain drops here though, as our four picks from this cohort split. Finally, we also found ourselves on the wrong side of the Cowboys upset win over the defending champion L.A. Rams.



Still, we recorded our fifth straight week of profit in five tries, so we are not too down.


Happy betting!!

 

Week 4: 5-3 (63%), 16% ROI


After laying 11 wagers in the inaugural round of regular season NFL action, 14 in week 2 and then 13 the following period, week 4's eight bet card seemed particularly skinny. But despite being rather light on action, we achieved solid results.



Supporting our profitability in week 4, we point out that underdogs finished 9-7 ATS (seven of our eight picks entailed taking the points). Most notably, our road dog picks outperformed. Of five plays on away teams taking points, three collected. This 3-2 ATS showing dramatically outperformed the 50% cover rate for this cohort broadly. We were also down on two of three teams taking points in their own building in week 4. This cohort finished 2-1 versus the number, but our wagers in this category merely split. Our singular favorite pick covered easily.


Happy betting!!

 

Week 3: 7-6 (54%), [CORRECTION: +3%] ROI


[CORRECTION: We managed to build on the success of weeks 1 and 2 by eking out a slight gain. While a third straight week of profit is certainly better than a sharp stick in the eye], our 7-6 record last week is somewhat disappointing, considering that our picks aligned well with a powerful trend undergirding week 3 NFL action.


Our 13 week 3 picks featured ten spots where we took the points (we also backed one chalk layer and two OVERs). We expected our underdog-heavy bet slip was likely to thrive, as, since the 2003-04 NFL season, week 3 has proven the second best period of the year for underdogs (145-116-6 ATS, 56%). Consistent with this precedent, dogs went 11-5-1 versus the number last week. Our unfavored picks were 6-4 ATS, but our wager on a slight favorite came up just short and we split our totals plays.


Sep 25 49ers @ Broncos +1 💰


But, the new football week commences Thursday, and hope springs eternal. Our pick for the Dolphins at the Bengals in week 4 Thursday Night Football action is detailed here.


Happy betting!!

 

Week 2: 8-6 (57%), +9% ROI


After an unremarkable 8-8 ATS showing in the opening round of NFL action, underdogs were 10-5-1 versus the number in week 2. Teams taking points in their own building were an even more remarkable 4-1-1 ATS. We took points with each of our 10 ATS plays, and our week 2 bet slip included three of six home dogs. These picks finished 6-4.


Our O/U plays though posed a drag on returns. We played four totals last week: one UNDER and three OVERS. Unfortunately, this season has been dominated by lower than expected aggregate scores; as was the case a week earlier, bets on disappointing offensive productivity cashed in in 11 of sixteen week 2 games. Against this backdrop, we feel fortunate to have split our totals bets 2-2 (we were on the right side of the action Thursday Night, and we collected on one of our three OVERs).


Sep 18 Colts @ Jaguars +4 💰

Sep 18 Falcons +10 @ Rams 💰


Thus we racked up another profitable week betting the NFL, despite accruing negative closing line value on our picks (to the tune of an average -0.2 points per game). We are anxiously anticipating the action next week.


Happy betting!!

 

Week 1: 8-3 (73%), +36% ROI


Last season, underdogs were a stellar 12-4 ATS in week 1. In a reversal of fortunes, with Monday Night Football action yet to play out, point-takers are a meager 7-8 versus the number so far this year. Still, despite our leaning heavily on underdogs on our week 1bet slip (we had the Bills as modest favorites Thursday and we played a favorite on one leg of teaser, otherwise we have taken chalk with ALL of our picks), we were extremely profitable to kick off the new season.


Sep 08 Bills -2.5 @ Rams 💰

Sep 11 Eagles @ Lions +4 💰

Sep 11 Colts @ Texans +8 💰


Of course, we expect our 73% cover rate to moderate, but we hope this strong showing, rooted in our time tested methodology, is indeed a harbinger of a profitable season to come.


Happy betting!!

 

Preseason Results Summary

Record: 6-10, -29% ROI


Our 13 exhibition season ATS picks were rewarded with an average/median half point of closing line value, which many professional bettors regard as an indication of long-term handicapping prowess. Additionally, each of our three moneyline picks accrued line value from post time to kickoff. Unfortunately though, our being on the right side of betting flows more often than not did not, in this instance, translate to a profitable preseason in economic terms.


In week 1 our picks were just bad. We went 2-3 ATS on five road dog plays, in spite of a 9-4 showing for point-takers overall and a 7-5 run for road dogs in particular. We also found ourselves on the wrong side of two near PICK moneyline plays.


Week two was more encouraging (read: profitable). We stuck to our knitting and cashed in on three of four road dogs picks, but lost on one underdog moneyline play.


The last week of the NFL Preseason was characterized by an otherworldly 13-2 ATS run for home teams. Needless to say, this showing did not bode well for our underdog bias, which is predicated on the statistically significant advantage point-takers have exhibited in various spots over the years.


All in all, a disappointing showing, but variance is a part of the game.


Happy betting!!


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