Fading two winning teams ATS: Bucs -1 vs. Seahawks and Packers +5 vs. Cowboys

The knowledgeable analysts at the Action Network developed a system predicated on the idea that teams that get off to the hottest starts versus the number early tend to come back down to earth as the season progresses. After successfully validating the statistical significance of its historical profitability, we adopted this angle.

The system becomes active after the first quarter of the NFL season, and entails fading teams with high average cover margins versus non-elite opposition:

After week 4, fading teams with average cover margins of at least five points has delivered a long-term 9% return on investment versus teams with no better than 60% win rates...

This system has suffered only one season with a cover rate below 50% back to 2005-06, and one season with a 50% ATS win rate—profits were secured in all other years.

Undergirding the success of this simple set of criteria, we believe the public's recency bias leads bettors to erroneously extrapolate early season results into the indefinite future. This reaction, we posit, results in support for teams that have beat the number lately in situations where they are less likely to experience ATS success (we detail evidence of recency bias in NFL betting markets here).

For week 10, this system highlights the Bucs as slight neutral-field favorites versus the Seahawks, and the the Packers as modest home dogs facing the Boys.

The NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks are 6-3 SU/ATS and have covered their nine contests by an average 5.5 points, thanks to double-digit margins in each of their last four games.

The Cowboys are an even more impressive 6-2 SU/ATS, good for 2nd place in the NFC East. Dallas has amassed a 6.6 point average ATS win margin, as five of the Cowboys' six covers this year have materialized with at least ten point cushions.

The Bucs and Packers both sport losing records and are a combined 7-11 this season.

Happy betting!!