Since the 2005-06 NFL regular season, the naive strategy of simply backing point-takers versus the number in week 2 has delivered better than a 7% return, on a record of 146-119-7 ATS. Consistent with this general tendency, we are siding with a slew of dogs this week, including the Seahawks, Cowboys Texans and Bears. Read on for our rationale.

We hypothesize that squads off disappointing offensive performances are commonly underestimated against the spread early in the new season (as scant data regarding current season performance leads the betting public to erroneously overweight recent flat showings).

Supporting this thesis, we have observed that, during about the first third of the NFL regular season, dogs that posted less than three touchdowns of offense in their last action have proven solid bets.

Teams in this position have delivered a 10% return on investment since 2004-05 with only five seasons of a cover rate south of 50%.

Much of our early season NFL handicapping playbook entails attempting to exploit the public's recency bias (we delved into the empirical support for the contention that this tendency rears its head in NFL betting markets here). So far, so good, as we are 8-3 through the first week of regular season action (our week 2 Thursday Night Football pick also cashed in). As the angle described herein indicates, we see ample opportunities in week 2, including the following wagers:

• Seahawks +9 @ 49ers

• Bengals @ Cowboys +7.5

• Texans +10 @ Broncos, and

• Bears +10 @ Packers

(Note: This system also highlights the Jets +6.5 @ the Browns and Dolphins +3.5 @ Ravens. We are passing on both of these contests, as we have observed conflicting signals on the Fins and, after failing to post improvement over a multi-year period, we simply do not trust the Jets.)

Happy betting!!