Is public overestimating Jacksonville?: Betting Texans +7.5 -115

History suggests week 5, at the Jacksonville Jaguars, represents a solid spot to back the Texans for the road cover. We are betting accordingly.

Thanks to wide spreads in weeks 1 amd 2, Houston is 2-2 ATS on the season, but 0-3-1 SU. We expect the Texans' poor showing straight up is influencing bettors against taking the flyer versus the number. Our hypothesis is that casual bettors are unduly influenced by recent performance and that lines for teams off recent struggles often exhibit significant value.

Supporting this thinking, we have observed that underdogs that have not collected a straight up win have been good for a statistically significant 11% cover rate facing opposition that missed that prior playoffs.

This angle has proved quite consistent, suffering cover rates south of 50% in only four seasons since 2003-04. Further, the system is 4-1 ATS so far this season.

Happy betting!!