Tampa Bay at Minnesota NFL Betting Pick: Bucs +4.5

According to data from SportsInsights, 61% of spread bets are down on Kirk Cousins and the Vikings when Minnesota hosts the new-look Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday morning. However, despite what, on the surface, looks like scant support the Bucs are taking 59% of dollars staked versus the number. This sharp action has flattened the spread from an opening level of Tampa Bay +6.5 to the current +4.5.

Per the following graphic, history suggests this setup probably contains information. Accordingly, our NFL betting pick for this contest is Baker Mayfield and company for the week 1 road cover.

The angle indicated above has proven good for a statistically significant 20% return on investment since 2005-06, and has submitted cover rates below 50% in only three seasons during the observation period.

Happy betting!!