top of page

2023 NFL Season Betting Picks Performance

Writer's picture: @WizeOwlSports@WizeOwlSports
Jul 24, 202313 min read

Updated: Dec 25, 2023

NFL Betting Picks: 65-61-9 ATS (53%), -3% ROI

We offer objective handicapping of 2023-24 NFL action.

“If there weren’t luck involved, I would win every time.”

- Phil Hellmuth, Professional Poker Player


Recall that our methodology for betting our NFL picks entails risking one unit on wagers with plus-money odds, otherwise betting to win one unit.


Super Bowl: 1-0


To cap our strong run in the playoffs, we had the Chiefs as short dogs in Super Bowl 58. Kansas City eked out the outright win in overtime, in a fairly tightly contested game, bringing our post-season betting record to a solidly profitable 6-3-1.



Divisional Round: 2-0-1


Dogs notched a 2-2 ATS record in the second round of post-season action, though point-takers with recent playoff action fared better (2-1 ATS).


The OVER had the edge in Divisional action, registering a 2-1-1 tally. Rather notably, in both covers for the OVER, the road teams had recent playoff experience.


We banked on a shootout when the Lions hosted the Bucs (who lost to the Boys in last year's Wildcard action), so this play was aligned with the operative trend. Accordingly, our expectation was realized and this OVER wager collected. We also had the Chiefs as slight underdogs at the Bills. Also consistent with the week's theme, Kansas City, the defending Super Bowl Champions, pulled off the upset. However, the Niners' narrow win as hosts to the Packers hurt our seven-point teaser, causing that bet to push.


01/21/24 Chiefs +3 @ Bills 💰


Wildcard Weekend: 3-3


Point takers finished the first round of the Playoffs 4-2 ATS, driven by a 2-0 run for home dogs. As home teams facing low expectations, the Texans and Buccaneers not only both beat the number, but these teams earned emphatic straight-up wins. We had the Texans for the slight underdog cover, but we also backed the Eagles for the win, over the Bucs. Improbably, we did have the Bills to beat the number as big favorites versus the Steelers, though, so our ATS picks fared 2-1.


At 3-3, the O/U was evenly split. However, in both cases where the away team made the prior post-season, the aggregate score ended up below the total line. Only one of our three UNDER plays aligned with the overarching trend of the week. Accordingly, we suffered two losses in the TOTALS arena.


01/13/24 Brown @ Texans +2 💰

01/13/24 Browns @ Texans u44.5 🚫

01/14/24 LA Rams @ Lions u51.5 💰

01/15/24 Steelers @ Bills -10 💰

01/15/24 Eagles ML @ Buccaneers 🚫


Regular Season Week 18: 3-0


At least we finished our uninspiring season with a bang! We did not have enough conviction to pick any sides, but a profitable tendency compelled us toward three winning UNDERs. This success is notable given that, at 9-7 for the week, the UNDER exhibited only a modest edge.


Favorites closed the regular season with a 10-6 showing in week 18, for a 19% return. As our framework tends to highlight (what we think are) mispriced underdogs, it is probably best that we shied away from ATS bets, since taking points last week was akin to swimming against the tide.


01/07/24 NY Jets @ Patriots u31 💰

01/07/24 Eagles @ NY Giants u41 💰


Regular Season Week 17: 2-3-1


DOgs 8-8

The OVER was 9-7.


12/28/23 NY Jets +7.5 @ Cleveland Browns 🚫

12/28/23 Browns -1.5 / Bills -6 TEASER PUSH

12/31/23 Cardinals +12 @ Eagles 💰

12/31/23 Saints +2.5 @ Buccaneers 💰

12/31/23 Seahawks -3 @ Steelers 🚫

12/31/23 Bengals @ Chiefs o45.5 🚫


Regular Season Week 16: 6-1


We took a three-week hiatus to focus on the NBA, given our poor results through week 12. Notably, we did not in any way alter our approach or methodology. We merely hit the pause button. Fortunately, our results upon our return proved encouraging.


After a 4-10-2 showing in week 15, underdogs registered a 9-6-1 record versus the number for the football week that ended on Christmas day. The bounce back for point-takers boded well for our approach, which mostly attempts to identify undervalued pooches. Four of our six plays backed dogs. We cashed on three.


Even more decisively, OVERs enjoyed an 11-5 week. In addition to our wagers on underdogs, we endorsed two plays on higher-than-expected aggregate scores, both of which collected.


Thus, our framework aligned with the overarching trends evident in week 16. Accordingly, we reaped a 63% return on investment and pared our season-to-date loss from an -8% return on investment to -4%. We hope this momentum persists throughout the season and into the playoffs.


12/24/23 Packers @ Panthers +4 💰

12/25/23 Raiders +14 @ Chiefs 💰

12/25/23 Raiders @ Chiefs u40.5 💰

12/25/23 NY Giants +14 @ Eagles 💰


Regular Season Week 12: 1-5-1


Underdogs finished the week 4-12 against the spread. Remarkably, none of our five wagers on dogs covered (though we pushed on one), which is to say that our point-taking endeavors finished notably worse than the 25% aggregate ATS win rate for pooches.


We also backed one UNDER, which likewise lost, not surprisingly, in retrospect, given that OVERs finished week 12 with a 9-7 record for the period.


Our solitary trip to the cashier's booth in week 12 came courtesy of a two-leg teaser, which featured two favorites. The result of our efforts in week 12 was a -56% return on investment.


11/24/23 Dolphins @ NY Jets +10 🚫

11/24/23 Dolphins @ NY Jets u40 🚫

11/26/23 Panthers +3.5 @ Titans 🚫

11/26/23 Browns +1.5 @ Broncos 🚫

11/26/23 Bills +3 @ Eagles PUSH


Regular Season Week 11: 3-4-2


Trends were definitive in week 11. Underdogs finished 9-5 versus closing spreads, with road dogs' 8-4 showing accounting for all of this strength. At odds with the 64% cover rate for this cohort though, our stabs at taking points went a disappointing 2-2-2 (including a 1-1-2 showing for point-takers in the opposition's building).


Just as definitively, UNDERs submitted a 10-4 aggregate tally last week. Our framework highlighted one play on lower-than-expected offensive output, which missed—quite improbably, as it were, given UNDERs' 71% hit rate.


We also played two OVERs, which, also rather remarkably, split.


11/19/23 Steelers +1.5 @ Browns 🚫

11/19/23 Raiders @ Dolphins o42 🚫

11/19/23 Bears +8 @ Lions 💰

11/19/23 Cardinals +5 @ Texans PUSH

11/19/23 Buccaneers @ 49ers o44 💰


Regular Season Week 10: 1-3


We bet on two road dogs, one home dog, and one favorite in week 10. We cashed on only one of our four wagers (taking the points in Thursday Night Football). Underdogs turned a profit away and at home, finishing 8-6 ATS in aggregate, making our 1-3 showing especially disappointing.



Regular Season Week 9: 3-3


The UNDER was 10-4 this week, and, at 83-52-1 (61%), is solidly profitable on the year. This observation represents the biggest, most exploitable trend of the current season—dogs are 61-70-5 (47%) following a 4-10 stint in week 9 and road teams are 61-67-5 ATS, after going 6-7 this week.


Fortuitously, and contrary to our general predilection towards dogs, plays on favored teams represented half of our picks—these wagers finished 2-1. Further, despite the adverse general environment, we split our two plays on underdogs. And most improbably, our UNDER bet flopped.


Thus, while we wait for (hope for?) a breakout week that propels us toward our long-term level of profitability—perhaps akin to the success we realized in week 2, we concede that our framework's bias toward dogs could have resulted in a much worse week 9 outcome, given the struggles point-takers experienced.



Regular Season Week 8: 2-2-1


Through seven weeks of action, we were 37-33-2, for a 0% return. In week 8 the doldrums continued with continued wheel spinning. But the lack of excitement that attended our 2-2-1 record felt apropos given the trendless state of the market last week: dogs were 7-7-2 versus the number, home teams were 8-6-2, and the UNDER went 8-7.


We cashed on a road favorite and a road dog, lost on a home favorite and a home dog, and pushed with a home dog.


Move along folks, nothing to see here.



Regular Season Week 7: 1-2-1


In an exceptionally sparse card (we only published four picks this week), we delivered our second-lowest cover rate of the season.


Broadly speaking, underdogs asserted themselves in week 7 with an 8-5 ATS record, after going missing a week earlier. Of note, pooches strength owed entirely to home dogs, who were a perfect 5-0. We did not get the memo, as our sole ATS pick was a play on a home favorite, which missed, despite a respectable 5-3 showing from this cohort.


UNDERs were 8-5 on the week, implying our 1-1-1 record betting on disappointing aggregate scores represents underperformance.



Regular Season Week 6: 6-6


Quite notably, road dogs were 2-6 in week 6, while underdogs, broadly, were 5-10. In fact, after this week, despite dogs' hot start to the season, chalk-layers 48-42-3 ATS record suggests it would have been nominally profitable to simply back every favorite this year.


Our plays on away point-takers finished 2-4, so we fared better than the aggregate market for this cohort...but this observation offers only about as much comfort as being the 'tallest pigmy'. We also finished 1-2 on three home dogs. In all, our 3-6 tally siding with pooches was exactly in line with the cover rate for all week 6 underdogs.


Fortunately, we cashed on two UNDER picks (UNDERs were 12-2-1) and one favorite, which mitigated our losses for the period.



Regular Season Week 5: 6-4


There were no overarching ATS trends evident this week. Underdogs were 7-7 ATS and road teams were 7-6 versus the number. As such, we feel pretty good about having taken the points in six of seven winning situations, and in only three losing instances. Also impressively, of our six plays on road dogs, we cashed on four. This showing is much better than the 4-4 aggregate ATS record for this cohort.


In addition to erroneously siding with two pooches playing in the other team's building, our week 5 losers included one home dog and a going-against-the-grain stab at an OVER (UNDERs were 9-5 on the week).



Regular Season Week 4: 6-6


We backed five road teams and seven host teams last week. This segmentation represents a distinction without a difference though, as away teams were 7-7-1 ATS. After this even-Steven showing, road teams can still cling to the claim of modest profitability on the season, but, as we have remarked before, this success owes entirely to their 12-4 ATS showing out the gate. Since week 1, away teams are 21-23-3 versus the betting line.


Separately, pooches 5-10-1 ATS record in week 4 constitutes the worst out of the young season and brings the year-to-date record for underdogs to 30-31-1 ATS. The bad news for our followers is that all 11 of our prescribed wagers entailed taking the points. The good news though is that our result was much better than the 33% cover rate implied by dogs' aggregate performance. We ended week 4 with only a modest (5%) loss.


Point-takers are a wealth-sapping 11-19 over the last couple of weeks (after a blistering 19-12-1 ATS start). Accordingly, our bread-and-butter approach of identifying undervalued dogs has struggled of late. We do not expect this malaise to last though, as we do not believe the cognitive biases consistently evident in betting markets over at least the last couple of decades, which we seek to exploit, have been corrected. Thus, we continue to anticipate better days ahead.


Separately, UNDERs 9-7 record represents relative normalization, after a three-week roller coaster ride. We did not endorse any TOTALS plays in week 4.



Regular Season Week 3: 3-7


We did not get much right in week 3. We sided with nine dogs, but only three cashed, as favorites submitted a dominant 9-6-1 performance versus the number. Thus, we were swimming against the tide last week. Our operating at cross purposes is reflected in our results (our 33% cover rate backing point-takers is worse than one would have expected based on dogs' 40% ATS win rate for the period).


After last week, underdogs' aggregate profitability for the year decreased to a 3% return on investment, on a 25-21-2 ATS (54%) record.


From a different angle, we backed seven road teams in week 4. Unfortunately though, away teams finished 7-8-1 versus the number (as was the case the week before). And while squads playing in the opposition's building are still a respectable 26-20-2 ATS (57%) cumulatively, this success owes entirely to the 12-4 showing in opening week action.


As an indication of the magnitude of our week 3 struggles, we did have one play that was aligned with the trend of home favorites covering. That wager flopped too, with the Ravens losing to the Colts outright, despite being slated as the favorite of more than a touchdown.


As our approach is validated by empirical data, we suspect our terrible week 3 merely represents variance, which afflicts all gamblers at some point or another. As such, as disappointed as we are, we press forward, undeterred, in anticipation of an eventual recovery.


[The UNDER's 11-5 showing continued the up-down sequence evident in weeks 1 and 2. Unfortunately, though, we did not find a basis to bet on lower-than-expected combined scores.]



Regular Season Week 2: 9-4-1


Underdogs continued their strong showing with a 9-6-1 ATS record in week 2. We sided with ten pooches, based on closing lines, so we rode that wave (we also had the Texans +1, but Houston closed at -1). Our plays on point-takers finished 6-3-1.


Through an alternate lens, after a blistering 12-4 start to the season, road teams were a middling 7-8-1 last week. Against this backdrop, the 3-1 record for our four plays on away teams appears quite impressive.


We also endorsed plays on two OVERs (both of which cashed). These recommendations seemed intrepid given UNDERs' utter dominance in week 1. As it would turn out, our bets on higher-than-expected offensive output proved in sync with the overarching trend for week 2, as OVERs' 13-3 tally was almost as commanding as UNDERs' 12-4 record a week earlier.


Finally, we played one favorite, as we sometimes (but rarely) do, which also led adherents to the cashier's window at the end of the night.


In all, a superlative 69% of our wagers covered in week 2, for a 30% return on investment.



Regular Season Week 1: 6-4


Per data from SportsInsights, underdogs have proven profitable bets in the NFL in each of the last five regular seasons. Point-takers' 2023-24 week 1 record shows no signs of the turning of this tide. Dogs, in general, are 10-6 ATS so far this season, while road dogs are a stellar 8-2 versus the number.


Consistent with the operative trends of the young season, our stab at the Chiefs as home favorites Thursday flopped, as did our plays on the Colts and Giants as home dogs Sunday. We were also disappointed by the Panthers as modest underdogs at the Falcons. Still, our 5-1 record backing road dogs helped us finish the week solidly profitable.


[We missed out entirely on another prominent week 1 theme, however. The UNDER was 12-4, but we did not indicate a single total play...whoops!]



Preseason Week 3



Preseason Week 1



Hall of Fame Game



Happy betting!!


0 comments

Comments

bottom of page