NFL Betting Picks: Backing the UNDER in NFC East showdown—Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles u47

The top two teams in the NFC East will face off this afternoon, when the Eagles host the Cowboys. Philly is slated as three point favorites, but, in our estimation, the most compelling play is on the total, which is currently set at 46.5.

Per the Action Network, the O/U line opened at 47 and sagged to as low as 46, before recovering to as high as 47.5. Per this source, 73% of tickets are supporting the OVER, however, the handle is roughly even split between OVER and UNDER backers.

We are betting aggregate scores disappoint, on the basis of the historically reliable system indicated below.

The angle indicated in the graphic has proven good for a 16% long-term return and has submitted losing records in only four seasons over the examination period.

We theorize that because divisional matchups are characterized by greater familiarity—as a result of more regular meetings and more in-depth analysis and game planning, scores tend to be lower, particularly in situations where aggregate offensive output is expected to be at least average. Relatedly, the lack of exposure to natural elements inherent in games played under closed domes facilitates higher scores, but reduced offensive output is likely in other settings.

As such, the Boys / Eagles UNDER makes the cut for our NFL betting picks lineup for week 9.

Happy betting!!