NFL Betting Pick: Buffalo Bills -1 @ Houston Texans

In Week 4 NFL action, the Houston Texans edged past the Jacksonville Jaguars 24-20, while the rejuvenated Baltimore Ravens hammered the then-undefeated Buffalo Bills 35-10. As a result of Houston's struggles with Jacksonville (and inability to cover the chalk of 5.5 points), the line for the Week 5 Bills at Texans matchup moved from Buffalo +1 to -2. The excitement for the Bills proved short-lived, though, as Buffalo's ineptitude on both sides of the ball on Sunday night catalyzed the move back to +1.

We think the public is overreacting to one bad showing by the Bills, and we are betting on Buffalo for the bounce-back cover at H-Town Sunday. Supporting our position, Massey-Peabody NFL Power Rankings suggests the Bills should be 4.5-point favorites at NRG Stadium this week. Through the first four weeks of action this season, this framework is 12-6 ATS when away teams are estimated to boast at least a full point of value (we discuss the Massey-Peabody methodology and review historical and current season performance here).

In addition to the favorable fundamental signal, the cornerstone of our approach to handicapping NFL action, historical context, likewise points to the likelihood of the road cover...

This angle described in the graphic just above has submitted a losing record in only one season included in the look-back period, and its 20% long-term return on investment proved statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, based on a one-sample z-test.

Explaining this system's success, we hypothesize that recency bias causes the betting market to extrapolate near-term outcomes into the indefinite future. This tendency is particularly misguided when good teams stumble, we suppose, because the best squads tend to possess both the talent and mental toughness to right the ship in short order—especially versus teams in their Conference (with whom they are more familiar).

So, sure, Buffalo's 25-point loss is disappointing, given that the Bills entered the season tied for the third-highest odds of winning the next Super Bowl. But does one bad game mean Buffalo is unlikely to beat the team deemed least likely to hoist the Lombardi trophy?...(actually, Houston tied with Arizona for this dubious distinction). We do not think so. Accordingly, the Bills -1 is included among our NFL betting picks for Week 5.

Note: We jumped on Bills early (too early, as it were) and got -1. We will grade our wager at this level, even though the line is more favorable as we publish this piece.

Happy betting!!