Much of our work seeks to capitalize on bettor biases that create actionable inefficiencies in the marketplace. One common preference that results in opportunities for objective bettors is the public's general predisposition to bet on favorites to cover the spread. Academic researchers have documented this propensity. For example, Golec & Tamarkin (1991) examined data covering the 1973 through 1987 NFL seasons and concluded that the bias against underdogs has increased. Similarly, Paul, Weinbach & Wilson (2014) observed that bettors prefer favorites in point spread and moneyline markets.

The Action Network's BetLabs database corroborates that bettors gravitate toward favorites over underdogs and that this tendency is commonly misguided. Since 2003-04, favorites garnered the support of most tracked NFL spread bets in 4,149 out of 5,259 regular season games, or about 79% of the time. However, in the face of this strong backing, chalk layers covered the spread only about 49% of the time.

We have observed that the tendency to side with favorites versus the number is especially exploitable early in the season, and when teams are most familiar with each other's style of play and competencies. The following angle seeks to take advantage of this bias.

The simple system described in the above graphic has generated a statistically significant 14% long-term return on investment and has lost money in only three seasons over the last 20 years.

Per this angle, our week 1 NFL betting picks include the following plays:

Carolina Panthers +3.5 -105* @ New Orleans Saints

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts +1 +105

Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 @ LA Chargers

* Our play on the Carolina Panthers for the road cover is also endorsed by a separate early-season system, which we detail here.

Happy betting!!