NFL Betting Picks: Taking Points with the Panthers, NY Giants and Commanders

One solidly profitable angle, predicated on the public's recency bias, highlights several underdogs for consideration on Week 1's NFL betting picks card. Accordingly, we are placing the following NFL Sunday wagers:

Carolina Panthers +3.5 -105 @ New Orleans Saints

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants +1

Washington Commanders +3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The operative system is rooted in the view that, despite the normalizing effect of the betting spread, teams that fared poorly last year are more likely to be underestimated versus the number in the current season—particularly in the early going, when performance data for new rosters is scant. The setup described in the following graphic supports this hypothesis.

The set of conditions described above delivered an 18% long-term return on investment, which proved statistically significant at the 95% confidence level based on a one-sample t-test. Further, this setup has submitted less than 50% cover rates in only two of the 20 full seasons included in the sample.

Durand, Patterson & Shank (2021), and Metz & Jog (2022), for example, document evidence of recency bias in NFL betting markets. The angle we detail herein demonstrates that this tendency among casual bettors results in exploitable opportunities for objective market participants.

Happy betting!!