NFL Betting Picks: New England Patriots +9 -130 @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Brady-era New England Patriots won the Super Bowl three times in five appearances in the 2010s. However, the more recent Patriots feel far removed from the glory days of the dynasty years. Last season, for instance, the Pats registered a mere four wins. Further, New England has not made the post-season since losing to the Buffalo Bills in the Wildcard action of the 2021-22 season.

The following table shows the week ago and current lines on offer at BetUS.com.pa for each contest on the Week 1 docket. The Pats are taking 9 from the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 36-21 straight up since 2021. This matchup features the biggest spread of the slate.

Identifying and capitalizing on biases in the marketplace lies at the core of our approach to NFL handicapping. We suspect bettors shunning New England is an overreaction to the Pats' tough times of late, constituting a prime example of recency bias (only 37% of spread wagers tracked by the Action Network and 32% of the ATS handle support the road cover). We theorize that the strong demand for the Bengals versus the number has inflated the betting line. Accordingly, we are adding a play on the lowly Patriots, plus the points, to this week's NFL betting picks card.

Consistent with our thesis, week 1 favorites, in general, have struggled to cover the first-game spread when facing teams that missed the prior playoffs. Week 1 dogs without recent post-season experience are 129-94-4 ATS (58%) over the last 19 years. Backing teams in this spot has proven good for a 13% long-term return on investment.

But, while low-quality dogs of any magnitude have demonstrated value against the Week 1 spread, squads taking more than a touchdown in season openers, after sitting out of the last post-season, have proven as extremely profitable as they are rare. Since 2005-06, of the 304 Week 1 contests in the Action Network's BetLabs database, teams have been favored by more than seven on only 38 occasions (about 13% of the time). Betting on big dogs to beat the Week 1 number after they failed to earn a berth in the last post-season proceedings has been good for a 36% return on investment.

The cover rate associated with this angle proved statistically significantly different (higher) than the 52.4% breakeven rate (assuming the standard vigorish), at the 95% confidence level, per a one-sample t-test. This fancy math talk means there is strong evidence that these observed results are not merely due to chance and that this setup very probably contains predictive information.

Also supporting our thesis that expectations are too high for the Bengals in Week 1, note that while Joe Burrow is 31-20-1 ATS (61%) in the regular season over his career, the fifth-year QB from LSU is a mere 1-3 versus the number when laying more than a touchdown.

Happy betting!!