NFL Betting Picks: New England Patriots +1 & Las Vegas Raiders +3
In a matchup between the worst teams in the AFC East (both are 1-3 straight up), the New England Patriots are scheduled to host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday morning. New England is slated as a one-point home dog. Our NFL betting picks include plays on the Patriots and Raiders to cover.
In Week 4, we detailed a basis for backing underdogs versus familiar opposition early in the season. This angle generated a statistically significant 14% long-term return on investment and lost money in only three of the years included in the sample period. This system is 7-6 ATS this season, heading into the last week of its applicability.
Last week's piece offered the following rationale for the consistent profitability associated with backing point-takers versus their division early in the regular season:
...we hypothesize that the market overestimates division favorites through roughly the first quarter of the season, as a result of a sparsity of data needed to form the basis for team evaluations. Because teams play their division six times, per NFL scheduling requirements, there is a greater familiarity with tendencies and competencies among division rivals, and, by extension, an increased ability to counter particular inclinations and competencies in the early going. A common result is closer-than-expected games and underdog covers. The data suggests, however, that more accurate team differentials are sussed out later in the season and become reflected in betting lines.
This system highlights five picks this week. The three sides we are betting on are reflected in bold font below (see here for a separate note discussing our plays on the Colts and Raiders). We are passing on the Bengals and Cardinals for a lack of supplemental validation.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals +1
Indianapolis Colts +3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots +1
Las Vegas Raiders +3 @ Denver Broncos
Arizona Cardinals +7.5 @ San Francisco 49ers
Also supporting our play on the Patriots as hosts to the floundering Dolphins, Massey-Peabody NFL Power Rankings give the Pats an 8-point edge at Gillette Stadium this week. In addition to its proven long-term profitability, this framework is 16-7 ATS (70%) this season when the estimated value with home teams is at least two points.
Given the constructive indications from the circumstance-based set-up detailed above and the more fundamentally derived power rankings approach we have adopted recently, we are happy to take the point with New England. In fact, we regard the Pats +1 as our highest-conviction ATS pick of Week 5.
Happy betting!!
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