NFL Betting Picks: Steelers +3.5 @ Falcons & Cowboys +2 -115 @ Browns

According to data from The Action Network, the Dallas Cowboys originally opened as 1.5-point favorites for their Week 1 matchup at the Cleveland Browns. But bettors pounced on the opportunity to take points with the Browns more than two months before the season would commence, forcing bookmakers to adjust. The line has since swung four points, leaving consensus at Cowboys +2.5 as of the time of this writing.

The start of the dramatic line movement is approximately coincident with clarity regarding DeShaun Watson's recovery from last year's season-ending shoulder injury. For the record, we take exception to the implication that Watson is a superior on-the-field leader to Dallas' Dak Prescott, but we digress. Whatever the reason for the substantial shift in the odds, history suggests bettors are likely overreacting.

The angle indicated in the above graphic has delivered a long-term 20% return on investment, and has submitted losing records in only four of the last 20 completed seasons. Further, the observed 61% cover rate proved statistically significantly higher than the breakeven win rate, assuming the standard vigorish, at the 95% confidence level, per a one-sample z-test.

In addition to the Cowboys, the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Atlanta Falcons also meet the criteria for this system. The Black and Yellow reportedly opened as 2.5 dogs for this contest at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Over the last three weeks though, bettors have bid the Falcons up, through the most important level in football, to 3.5-point favorites (as an aside, the action on the Falcons appears to be sharp, as Atlanta is supported by a mere 35% of ATS betting volume, but 60% of the handle, The Action Network reports...we are undeterred by this observation, though, as we intrepidy follow the data, and empirical study does not indicate sharps have exhibited an edge from this position).

As a result of the triggers for this system, our Week 1 NFL betting picks include plays on both the Steelers and the Boys for covers.

Happy betting!!