NFL Betting Picks: Taking the Points with the [Panthers], Packers, Titans and LA Rams in Week 2

Bill James, who might be best known for innovating sabermetrics and inspiring Michael Lewis' book "Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game" (which spawned the 2011 movie, "Moneyball"), developed the Pythagorean Expectation to estimate the number of games a baseball team should have won based on runs scored and runs allowed.

This statistic has been adapted to predict win percentages in the NFL. The formula is shown below.

For example, Green Bay lost 29-34 in Week 1. The win rate forecast by their Pythagorean Expectation is as follows: 29^2.37 ÷ (29^2.37 + 34^2.37), or 2,923 ÷ (2,923 + 4,263) ≈ 41%.

As it turns out, Pythagorean Expectation contains predictive value for early-season against-the-spread outcomes.

Back to the Packers example, Green Bay's 0% actual win rate after Week 1 is lower than the 41% predicted by their Pythagorean Expectation, so taking the points versus the Colts, who have not made the playoffs since 2020, is warranted in Week 2.

This angle has delivered a 24% long-term return on investment and has cost adherents money in only three seasons included in the look-back period. Further, the 64% cover rate is statistically significantly different from the 52.4% breakeven rate, assuming the standard vig, at the 95% confidence level, which conveys a high level of conviction that this setup contains predictive value and that its observed success is not merely due to chance.

Rationalizing this system's success, we suppose that bettors' recency bias unduly influences behavior, skewing ATS support against teams that have not fared well relative to expectations. Mispriced lines seem to be the common result of this tendency. Facing lower-quality opposition (i.e., teams that sat out of the last playoffs) renders covers even more likely for underperformers.

[Six] plays are triggered in Week 2, [four] of which are included among our NFL betting picks:

[LA Chargers @ Carolina Panthers +6.5 -115]

Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers +3.5

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans +3.5

LA Rams +1 @ Arizona Cardinals

Validating our decision to back the [Panthers,] Packers, Titans, and LA Rams, we note that—through a more fundamental lens—these wagers represent solid value plays. After accounting for location, Massey-Peabody NFL Ratings make the [Panthers 4.5-point dogs,] the Packers versus the Colts essentially a PICK at Green Bay this week, the Jets less than a two-point favorites at Tennessee and the Rams live dogs, as almost 1.5-point favorites, at Arizona.

The Massey-Peabody framework considers rushing, passing, scoring, and play success, adjusted for home-field advantage, and has been good for better than a 56% cover rate from 2011 to 2017 (Massey-Peabody Ratings are 9-7 ATS so far this season).

We are passing on the two other picks our Pythagorean Expectation system mustered—the NY Giants at the Commanders and the Browns at the Jaguars—as we could not glean sufficient corroborating support to compel us to action.

As a final note, on personnel, the Packers' Jordan Love suffered an MCL sprain in the waning seconds of Week 1 action. Consequently, Green Bay will start Malik Willis at QB. On this announcement, the betting line swung emphatically, from Packers -4.5 to +3.5.

The magnitude of this line movement feels like an overreaction. The Action Network recently suggested the difference between Love (+3.5) and Willis (-1) is 4.5 spread points, not eight. This assessment is approximately consistent with the perspective of legendary bettor Jimmy Boyd, who values elite QBs at 6 to 7 spread points and non-elite QBs at 3 to 4 points.

It should be noted though, that Head Coach Matt LaFleur has not ruled out the potential of Love getting some reps on Sunday. If Love can go (and be productive), Packers +3.5 will appear a steal.

Happy betting!!

[When we originally published this post on Thursday, we inadvertently omitted our play on the Carolina Panthers for the ATS win at the Los Angeles Chargers. As of the time of the revision (Saturday evening), Carolina was available at +6.5 -115 at BetUs.com.pa. We will grade this wager based on this line.]