Season-to-date record: 81-75-3, 52%
A trip to Indiana usually just what teams struggling ATS need this year: Backing Portland -5.5 and o242.5
The Trail Blazers have dropped five straight, including the last four at Moda Center. The most recent pair of losses, doled out by the Grizzlies, occurred despite Portland being favored for both contests. A system on our BetLabs dashboard backs favorites taking to the road after extended home stands that culminated with surprise losses. As such, we are baking the Blazers for the cover.
Teams laying points away, after at least a three-game home stand that ended with a loss from the favorite position, have delivered a whopping (statistically significant) 24% return on investment since 2004.
This system has suffered only two seasons with cover rates south of 50% and is 7-3 versus the number so far this year.
Further, team level betting trends appear to squarely favor Portland this afternoon, if for no other reason than because Indiana is a very poor team ATS in most situations.
At 25-35 ATS, the Pacers are the third-worst bet in the NBA this year,
Indiana is 11-16 against the spread taking points,
The Pacers are 8-20 ATS in their own building,
The Trail Blazers are 16-12 ATS on the road,
Portland is 6-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings with Indiana (back to 2017),
The Blazers are 4-1 versus the number at Bankers' Life Fieldhouse since 2015
On personnel, the Pacers will be without Center Domantas Sabonis, as well as backup SG Jeremy Lamb and second-string big, Goga Bitadze.
Indiana is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS since Sabonis went down about a week ago and 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS on the year without the services of their top-10 ranked power forward at their disposal, per ESPN's Real Plus-Minus statistic (Sabonis shifted to the Center position after Myles Turner tore a plantar plate in his toe).
RPM suggests Sabonis' greatest value is on the defensive end of the court, where his presence is estimated to sap two points per 100 possessions from opponents productivity (Domantas' offensive RPM is negative, implying he is a liability when the Pacers have the ball). We expect the likely combination of worse Pacers defense and the same/better offense increases the odds the OVER cashing in tonight. Accordingly, we are also betting on a shootout Tuesday.
Supporting the expectation for higher scores, the analysts at the Action Network have observed that indications of sharp action on the OVER have, in fact, coincided with paydays for bettors wagering on offensive fireworks.
In NBA games where the percent of dollars on the OVER is 10 or more than the percent of tickets, and the betting total increases by between one and four points as a result, the OVER has delivered a 9% long-term profit.
This profitability proved significant under the scrutiny of statistical inference. Consistently, this system delivered a positive return each year since 2015, and is 22-14 so far this season.
We also observe several team-level tendencies this year that fit with the idea that scores in Indiana are likely to exceed expectations Tuesday.
The Blazers' O/U is 16-12 this season away from Moda Center,
These teams combine for a 36-25 O/U this year playing on the same number of days rest as the opposition,
Indiana's O/U is 20-14-1 on one day of rest,
The Pacers OVER is 15-11 versus the West,
Indy's O/U is 16-11 as an underdog
So, while at 242.5, this total is sky-high, there is ample precedent for it being bested (after all, the O/U is 13-9 this season in contests featuring a closing total north of 240).
Happy betting!!
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