Season-to-date record: 74-73-3, 50%
Betting against the Jazz in their fourth straight game as BIG favorite: Pacers +10
With more than three-quarters of the shortened 2020-21 NBA regular season in the books, the Utah Jazz's 41-14 SU tally represents the best record in the NBA. Further, Utah's average margin of victory falls just shy of hitting the double-digits (also good for best in the League).
Not surprisingly, one offshoot of this success is bloated spreads in Jazz games. Based on the current betting line, this morning's action at Vivint Arena will mark the 15th game where Utah has laid at least ten points--second only to Giannis' Milwaukee Bucks, who have given their opposition double-digits 18 times so far.
We are fading the home team's high expectations (i.e. taking the 10 points with the Pacers), as history suggests the betting market's enthusiasm toward the Jazz here is likely too frothy to justify. In the past, fading good, home teams has proven quite profitable when these teams are heavily favored for (at least) two games in a row.
Specifically, betting against home teams that 1) secured a berth in the previous post-season proceedings, 2) were favored by 10 or more last out and 3) are double-digit favs again has been good for a 19% return on investment since 2005.
This system has amassed only two completed seasons with a cover rate south of 50%, and is 5-3 ATS so far this year.
In spite of these compelling long-term results, we still undertook to validate the gains from this system using a quantitative technique known as statistical inference. This approach offered high conviction that the observed results are probably not due to chance, and that this system likely boasts meaningful predictive ability. Per the following exhibit, our quantitative examination implies the a minimum cover rate of 55% for this set of criteria--well above the 52.4% threshold for profitability, assuming the standard vigorish of -110.
Happy betting!!
Comments