Going against the smart money grain: Chicago Bulls -8.5
The Bulls opened as 11.5 point favorites as hosts to the Magic Tuesday, but the line has slipped 3.5 points since yesterday evening. This spread movement unfolded despite 68% of ATS best and half the dollars wagered against the spread supporting Chicago.
There are no new additions to the injury report so the implication is that significant sharp action has come in on Orlando. Consistent with this thinking, Sports Insights reports eight steam moves and one reverse line move signal in the Magic's favor, versus only two steam moves and one reverse line indication for Chicago.
Perhaps counterintuitively, we are fading the smart money and backing the Bulls for the cover. Supporting our thinking, historically, when betting spreads move at least two points toward an NBA team backed by no more than 40% of ATS bets and dollars wagered against the spread, it has paid to bet the other way.
This angle has been good for a 17% return on investment since 2015-16, and at its worst, delivered a 50% cover rate on the season.
Happy betting!!
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