Season-to-date record: 38-40-1, 49%
Betting on a barn burner at the State Capitol: Heat/Kings o225.5
Miami Heat games rank in a three-way tie for 9th in the NBA by UNDER record, likely driven by the Heat's slow pace (Miami ranks dead last by effective possession ratio) and strong defensive capacity (the Heat rank 7th by opponent's points per game and 10th by defensive efficiency).
On the other hand, the Kings' 17-10 O/U this season pits Sacramento as the 5th most OVER-prone team in the League. Rationalizing the Kings high-output offense, Sac is one of only 11 teams shooting better then 50% from the floor. Further, the Kings are 11th in offensive efficiency overall and 5th in fast break efficiency.
Consistent with these statistics, the Kings' last three games have each gone OVER the betting total (though Sacramento is riding a four-game losing streak that culminated in an 11-point loss versus the Nets Monday).
We are betting Sacramento's general penchant for prolific aggregate scoring overwhelms Miami's conservatism Thursday, as we think circumstances surrounding this evening's action align with the OVER.
Specifically, we have observed that games featuring home teams off at least two days rest, after losing three (or more) straight, tend to overshoot scoring expectations when the opposing team is from the other conference.
This system has delivered a 12% long term return on investment, including a 1-0 run so far this year, and has submitted only five seasons since 2004 where the cover rate was below 50%.
As of the time of this writing, the OVER is the out-of-favor pick among bigger (presumably sharper) bettors, as while 80% of O/U wagers tracked by the Action Network are down on the OVER, this extreme volume only accounts for 29% of the dollars wagered on the total for this contest.
Happy betting!!
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