Season-to-date record: 39-42-2, 48%
Betting Luka can carry the Mavs for at least a half: Dallas Mavericks 1H -2.5
We identify a couple of history-based systems that highlight the Mavs to beat the first half number versus Memphis Monday. As such, we are backing Dallas for the cover through the first two quarters of play.
First, we hypothesize that good teams off surprise losses muster the fortitude necessary to deliver the next cover. We have observed some empirical support for this thinking: in clashes between teams that both made the last post-season, backing favorites to cover the first half chalk after they were upset by a bucket or less last game has been good for a 15% long-term return on investment since 2005.
This system has amassed only four seasons with a cover rate of less than 50% and is 2-1 ATS so far this year.
A second system on our radar likewise favors Dallas to beat the first half spread. This supplemental approach is predicated on backing solid favorites in the midst of extended home stands, after losses in their own building.
Favorites on least their fourth consecutive home game after appearing in the prior playoffs and off a loss most recently have proven solid plays versus the first half chalk, good for a 21% return on investment since 2005. Only in two seasons has this system registered ATS win rates south of 50%. This approach is 4-3 versus the number so far this year.
The Mav's Kristaps Porzingis has been ruled out of Monday's action.
Also worth noting, our perspective appears to be out of favor, as the betting public (sharps and squares alike) is down on Memphis. The Grizzlies have collected the support of 56% of spread bets by volume tracked by the Action Network and 74% of dollars wagered on the ATS outcome for this game.
Happy betting!!
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