Backing a short-handed Utah squad in Phoenix: Jazz +11
History is clear that statistically significant profits accrue from fading home teams laying double-digits for at least two straight games when they face opposition that participated in the prior post-season proceedings.
This angle has delivered about a 21% return on investment back to 2005-06 and, at 4-0 ATS, is perfect so far this season.
Worth noting though, Utah's Rudy Gobert will have the night off after suffering a mild calf strain in a competitive loss at Golden State Sunday. Mike Conley is also inactive Monday (rest). The betting line moved from +9.5 to as high as +11.5 on news of the Jazz Center's absence, before settling back down at +11. Additionally, Bojan Bogdanovic (finger strain), Royce O'Neale (knee) and Joe Ingles (ankle) are listed as questionable for Utah.
But bettors should not shy away from this play due to personnel issues. It is common for teams in this spot to deliver the cover without key men. For instance, of four ATS wins this season, three unfolded absent big star power: the Pacers beat the Warriors outright as 16.5 point dogs Thursday without Domantas Sabonis; on Christmas Day, sans Luka Doncic, the Mavs fell at the Jazz by a mere two scores despite being slated as dogs of 13.5; and Golden State gave a visiting Portland 15 without Damian Lillard--the Blazers covered by 5.
For Phoenix, DeAndre Ayton is listed as doubtful.
The Suns have amassed the support of 59% of ATS wagers on this contest and 63% of spread dollars as of the time of this writing, per Sports Insights.
Happy betting!!
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