Season-to-date record: 47-52-2, 47%
Looking for Luka and the Mavs to close the gap in the Southwest Division: Dallas -4.5
Generally speaking, backing good favorites has been the play in NBA action just after the all-star break--particularly against lower-level opposition.
Favorites that earned a seed in the previous post-season have been good for a 13% return on investment facing teams that didn't make the last playoffs after at least six days off.
This system is 0-2 so far this year, but has submitted only one completed season since 2005 with a cover rate below 50% (thus, history deems it unlikely this approach finishes the current season with a losing ATS record).
Fundamentally, Dallas' play has been up-and-down this year, with a six-game losing streak between late-January and early-February serving as the lowlight. Nonetheless, the 18-16 Mavs are clinging to the number two spot in the NBA Western Conference Southwest Division, and have rattled off three consecutive wins since Kristops Porzingus returned to the lineup.
Separately, and most improbably, the 18-14 Spurs currently sit atop the Southwest Division, despite their most recent result--a narrow surprise home loss to the Thunder (San Antonio lost by five, though the Spurs were slated as seven-point favorites. Circumstances surrounding this latest action likewise fits with the idea that Dallas' recent momentum is likely to carry over Wednesday versus their neighbors to the south.
Teams off narrow upset losses have proven strong fades taking points from their division in their next out.
This system has amassed a 19% return on investment since 2005, with only two completed seasons with cover rates south of 50%, and a 3-2 ATS run so far this year.
We jumped on -4.5 last night, with the expectation that the public would come in on the favorites, after Luka started in the all-star game and the Spurs were not even represented (to the chagrin of San Antonio fans, who felt their Demar DeRozan's 20 points/7 assists/5 rebounds/1 block per game average warranted the nod). To our surprise, the line dropped to a consensus level of -4, despite the favs taking 64% of ATS dollars tracked by the Action Network. This finding suggests some credible players are backing San Antonio. We respectfully disagree.
Happy betting!!
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