Season-to-date record: 49-52-2, 49%
Betting on an atypically low scoring game in Brooklyn: Celtics @ Nets u234.5
Brooklyn's 25-12 O/U record makes the Nets the third most profitable team in the NBA for OVER-backers. Aggregate scoring in Brooklyn's two games prior to the all-star break exceeded expectations, and the Nets' OVER collected in three of the their last five. This predilection toward higher output affairs is likely linked to the combination of Brooklyn's number one ranked offense, which averages almost eight points per 100 possessions more than the League norm, and number 24 defense, which gives up about 1.5 points more than average per 100 possessions.
But by now, we expect the betting market has come to appreciate the Net's bias toward higher scores. To this point, the following chart shows the percent of all dollars wagered on Brooklyn's O/U by game, since James Harden was acquired. Note that the last couple of games before the recess saw more than 80% of Nets' O/U dollars chase the OVER, resulting in record OVER interest, both times.
History hints that the steep total for Thursday's contest probably represents bookmakers' overreaction to the recent phenomenon of herding around Nets OVERs (consistent with this thinking, the total for this contest is set to close higher than the O/U of any Celtics game to this point in the season). Supporting the notion that this line is likely inflated, we note that in the past, extended breaks pretty effectively doused fire-breathing offenses, at least temporarily.
The UNDER has proven VERY profitable in games just after the mid-season break that feature home teams whose OVER cashed in in at least three of the five games leading up to the pause, and road teams that made in appearance in the prior post-season.
This system has been good for a 32% return on investment since 2005, with only two completed seasons with cover rates of less than 50%. As such, we perceive opportunity here for contrarian-minded bettors open to considering a play on the UNDER, and are betting accordingly.
Happy betting!!
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