NBA Finals games 4's represent an opportunity for teams up 3-0 to finish their opposition and capture the coveted Larry O'Brien Trophy, or, for squads that won two of the first three games of the ultimate series of the NBA Playoffs, a chance to assume a commanding 3-1 lead. As teams up 3-1 have been crowned champion 35 out of 36 times, Finals game 4's sport a 97%-100% probability of deciding the last team standing.
We theorize that teams at a deficit heading into game 4 of the Finals pull out all the stops to avert either an imminent, unceremonious end to their championship ambition, or the virtual certainty that the end is near. The resolve to live to fight another day translates to concerted defensive effort, we expect, which, in turn, results in lower scores.
In-line with this thinking, we have observed a consistent tendency for the UNDER to cash in this spot.
Since 2004-05, backing the UNDER in game 4 of the Finals has delivered a statistically significant 51% return on investment. This angle last suffered a loss in 2016-17.
Accordingly, we are betting on a disappointingly low aggregate score in 2022-23 NBA Finals game 4 action featuring the Denver Nuggets at the Miami Heat.
Inclined UNDER-backers might want to jump on sooner than later though. Five of Miami's last six contests have gone UNDER, including two of three in this matchup, while Denver's UNDER is 6-3 most recently. As a result of the bias toward lower scoring affairs these teams have exhibited, the betting total has dropped in each contest of the current series, from closing at 219 in game 1, to a 211 open for game 4. Though it is early still, data from the Action Network indicates 86% of the O/U handle is with the UNDER. Accordingly, the line for Friday's action is already down to 210.5.
Happy betting!!
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